COVID-19 Graphs 12APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – still at current trend the world could almost reach 4,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could reach 7,000 cases by day “39”(18th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could reach 4,000 cases by day “39” (28th Apr)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (signs of flattening):

  • UK – at current trent, still in a trend that could reach 100,000 infected by day “41” (15th Apr)

UK’s curve (not flattening yet):

  • USA – at current trend, could pass 1,000,000 cases by day “50” (21st Apr)

No signs yet of the curve flattening for the USA:

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 still could pass 350,000 by 30th Apr

The World Health Organisation (WHO) believes the month of May will continue to be challenging around the world.

  • Australia – at current trend, could just reach 75 by day “39” (18th Apr)
  • Argentina – death rate increased, at current trend could just pass 275 by day “39” (28th Apr)

  • UK – at current trend, could pass 20,000 by day “45” (19th Apr)

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could pass the 50,000 mark by day “50” (21st Apr) – As expected, today on day “41” (12th Apr), the USA has passed Italy and has the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in the world

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

  • Thailand and Malaysia just swapped places
  • China, South Korea and Iran have been battling COVID-19 for many weeks, and their recovery rates are more than 50% – this is a hope for the whole world that with proper treatment, we’d be able to pass this crisis
  • Australia has not been fighting COVID-19 for as long as China, South Korea and Iran; however our rate of recoveries is also more than 50% which speaks well of our health system (a huge THANKS to all members of our health system in OZ !!!)

  • Dominican Republic performed more recoveries and pushed up on the ranking
  • UK is showing very poor recovery rate, could be related to the volume of cases which could be overwhelming their health system (combined with not enough early tests performed, which may indicate when sick people are caught by the health system the illness might be too advanced)
  • Brazil is not treating this crisis seriously enough; with very limited testing, very low social distancing restrictions from the government, and very poor treatment of those ill. Brazil is the largest populated nation in South America, and the consequences of their lack of action could be felt across the continent

  • Italy and Germany swapped places; Portugal performed many tests and moved up on the rank; Israel and Singapore did not report any new tests
  • All these countries are doing well with high recovery rates, and low death rates, which might be attributed to the volume of testing conducted

  • Morocco has more than 1500 cases and made it into the report, and pushed Japan off this list (however, Japan is on the 11th worse performer for number of tests per 1M people)
  • Some of these countries are showing low case volumes, but with so little testing performed there is a possibility that the case volumes are not reflective of the true situation in their population. For example, Argentina with total lock-down from 20th March, has a volume of 1,975 (1/3 of Australia’s volume) but 50% more deaths than Australia. If the average death to case ratio is applied to the number of deaths in Argentina, their case volume should be around 10,000 not 1,975
  • Brazil is doing very little testing, it has a case volume of 20,727 with 1124 deaths. Applying the same logic and using the average death to case ratio, Brazil case volume should be around 120,000 not 20,727

  • No changes
  • Singapore took preventive measures and locked their country externally and internally (lock-downs, masks, social distancing, etc) and they controlled the crisis very tightly (health system and government were prepared for a pandemic, have extensive experience with SARS and MERS previously)
  • Australia stopped flights from China early in the game (for real, not like in the USA where it was announced by Trump but never implemented and more than 400,000 people arrived from China after their flight ban was announced). The government repatriated all Australians in China and forced to quarantine in Christmas Island, therefore protecting the community. That measure avoided community transmission from the start. Further measures were implemented to improve social distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc which added to flatten the curve, allowing our health system to treat and reduce deaths

  • No changes
  • Italy was too slow to implement social distancing, quarantine, etc. Also, North Italy has regular flights from China (even from the Wuhan area) way after the crisis had started, so community transmission was high and hard to stop.
  • Spain was also too slow to implement social distancing, quarantine, lock-downs, etc.
  • The Netherlands government had announced one of their options considered was to build “herd immunity” in their population which is not a recommended WHO practice as there have been many cases of COVID-19 re-ocurring in patients who had recovered fully from the disease. Their government has confirmed they are not pursuing herd immunity; but it is possible that the high rate of deaths per case is related to not implementing social distancing, quarantine, lock-downs early enough there
  • Sweden announced they would go for “herd immunity”, they have done 1/3 the number of tests per 1M people than Australia, they have 4x times the number of cases per 1M people than Australia, 4% recovery rate only (Australia has more than 50%), 9% death to case ration (Australia has 1%).

2 Replies to “COVID-19 Graphs 12APR2020”

  1. Raul you should be getting paid by the government or WHO to analyse these figures. I wonder how many countries see other countries figures as if they did it may change there approach.
    I certainly are passing these over to the UK and Sweden.
    Thank you.

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