COVID-19 Graphs 13APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – there has been a slight decline in the rate of new cases lately, at current trend the world could just pass 4,000,000 cases by 30th Apr (from almost 4,500,000 yesterday)

  • Australia – at current trend, could reach 6,500 cases by day “39”(18th Apr) – yesterday we predicted almost 7,000 so we’re getting almost to a flat curve
  • Argentina – at current trend could reach 3,000 cases by day “39” (28th Apr) – preliminary signs of the curve starting to flatten for Argentina as well (lock-down extended to 27th Apr for Argentina by their government)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (signs of flattening):

  • UK – at current trent, still in a trend that could reach 100,000 infected by day “41” (15th Apr)

UK’s curve (not flattening yet):

  • USA – at current trend, could reach just under 1,000,000 cases by day “50” (21st Apr)

No signs yet of the curve flattening for the USA:

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could pass 300,000 by 30th Apr – this is slightly lower than yesterday so there might be a slowing down of the day-to-day increase of number of deaths

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 75 by day “39” (18th Apr)
  • Argentina – death rate increased, at current trend could just pass 300 by day “39” (28th Apr) – the number of deaths in Argentina is too high for their case volume, that combined with the low tests conducted there, might be an indicator that the actual number of cases is higher there (around 10,000)

  • UK – at current trend, could pass 20,000 by day “48” (22nd Apr) – this is a small improvement as yesterday the trend was to reach that milestone by day “46”

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could be just under the 50,000 mark by day “50” (21st Apr) – this is a small improvement as yesterday’s prediction had the USA passing 50,000 by day “50”

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

  • Austria and Switzerland just swapped places
  • Germany and Thailand also just swapped places
  • Mexico displaced Spain from the 10th position
  • China, South Korea and Iran are still at the top as expected, they have been battling COVID-19 for many weeks, and their recovery rates are more than 50%
  • Australia has maintained their high record of recoveries

  • Sweden moved down 2 spots (or up in this ranking) as they have very low recoveries. Sweden was attempting “herd immunity” and might have let the disease advance too much with to lack of testing and treatment to be able to recover cases when identified
  • Serbia has improved their rate of recover and it is now in the 32nd spot
  • The USA has climbed down to 43rd in the world with their rate of recoveries to cases, and it’s now made it to the worst-10 countries – The biggest military power in the world is not doing well in its battle with COVID-19
  • UK is still showing the worst recovery rate, could be due to the volume of cases overwhelming the NHS (and not enough early tests)
  • Brazil is still not treating this crisis seriously enough (not enough tests, not enough social distancing, poor treatment of those ill, etc.); the consequences of their lack of action could be serious to other countries

  • Italy, Austria, Portugal and Germany just swapped places
  • All these countries are doing well with high recovery rates, and low death rates, which might be attributed to the volume of testing conducted

  • Indinesia and Algeria swapped spots
  • Philippines increased their testing and displaced Brazil on the 43rd position
  • Argentina remained in the 42nd spot. As stated yesterday, Argentina has a case volume of 1,975, 1/3 of Australia’s case volume, but 50% more deaths than Australia. If the average death to case ratio is applied to the number of deaths in Argentina, their case volume could be around 10,000 not 2,142
  • Same applies to Brazil, and its case volume estimated in base on their death rate could be around 120,000 not 22,192

  • Israel and Australia just swapped places (no significant changes)

  • Netherlands and France just swapped places; Indonesia and Sweden also swapped places

  • This is a new report showing the number of new cases added as a proportion of the number of cases
  • Australia only reported 10 cases today, could be just an issue with time differences and should be adjusted tomorrow. Still the number of new cases in Australia is decreasing daily

  • Russia and Belarus increased their case volume by almost 14%, it is possible that not enough testing previously conducted and the increase of cases could be related to testing being performed now
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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