COVID-19 Graphs 14APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – there has been a slight decline in the rate of new cases lately, at current trend the world could just pass 4,000,000 cases by 30th Apr (from almost 4,500,000 two days ago)

  • Australia – at current trend, could reach 6,500 cases by day “39”(18th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could reach 3,500 cases by day “39” (28th Apr) – there was a high increase of new cases reported last two days

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet due to new case increases last two days):

  • UK – at current trent, still in a trend that could reach 100,000 infected by day “42” (16th Apr) – new cases decreasing day after day

UK’s curve (not flattening yet) but new caes decreasing:

  • USA – at current trend, could just pass 800,000 cases by day “50” (21st Apr) which shows a reduction of new cases in the USA

No signs yet of the curve flattening for the USA, however the new cases are decreasing slightly day after day:

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could pass 300,000 by 30th Apr – this is slightly lower than two days ago so there might be a slowing down of the day-to-day increase of number of deaths

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 70-75 by day “39” (18th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could just be slightly under 300 by day “39” (28th Apr)

  • UK – at current trend, could pass 20,000 by day “48” (22nd Apr)

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could be just under the 35,000 mark by day “50” (21st Apr) – this is a significant improvement as two days ago the trend had the USA passing 50,000 by day “50” (shows a significant reduction of number of deaths day after day)

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

  • New ranking displaying number of cases per 1 million population, these are the best 10 with the lowest number of cases per 1M population
  • India has implemented many regulations to enforce social distancing, but it is hard for the country with such a high population and high density cities, so far so good
  • Thailand was the first country after China to have a COVID-19 infection, and they have a very small caseload still

  • These are the countries with the highest caseload per 1M population
  • With the exception of the USA, they are all European countries and that’s clearly where the outbreak concentrated – Asian countries closer to China and with a lot more chances to get infections responded to the crisis a lot quicker and more decisevely probably due to their fresh expreince with other recent pandemics (e.g. SARS, MERS, etc); their governments and populations were more ready to react to the crisis than Europeans

  • Austria and Switzerland just swapped places; no other changes

  • UK did not report a recovery number to the WHO, so the previous number had to be used — It is highly probably the UK recoveries have increased significantly
  • Dominican Republic and Philippines just swapped places; no other changes

  • Portugal increased the number of testing greatly, displacing Italy and Austria; no other changes

  • Egypt swapped places with Morocco; Brazil swapped places with Pakistan; no other changes
  • Brazil and Argentina still ranking very poorly in number of tests performed per population

  • Australia continues to keep their death rate low, it jump up on the ranking and displaced Belarus and Israel ; no other changes

  • No changes

  • Australia had only reported 10 cases yesterday and it was 1st in the ranking due to that, now has reported the daily new cases and it got to its 46th place (6th best for lowest number of cases)
  • The Czech Republic implemented a number of regulations to ensure social distancing, and also required masks to be used by the population, their number of new cases is very low

  • Peru new cases jumped to almost 24% increase (yesterday their new case increase was under 9%) which is very concerning
  • Russia and Belarus continue to increase their volume, probably due to more testing
  • Singapore number of new cases jumped up too. Singapore had implemented tough measures right from the start and contained the spready very well, however some of the measures might have been relaxed too soon and new cases are increasing
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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