COVID-19 Graphs 15APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – there continues to be been a slight decline in the rate of new cases world-wide, at current trend the world could now be just under 4,000,000 cases by 30th Apr (from almost 4,500,000 three days ago)

  • Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,500 cases by day “39”(18th Apr) – curve is almost flat
  • Argentina – at current trend could reach 3,500 cases by day “39” (28th Apr) – there was a high increase of new cases reported last few days

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet due to new case increases last few days):

  • UK – at current trent, still in a trend that could reach 100,000 infected by day “42” (16th Apr) – new cases decreasing day after day

UK’s curve (not flattening just yet) but the number of new caes is decreasing:

  • USA – at current trend, could just pass 800,000 cases by day “50” (21st Apr) which shows a reduction of new cases day-by-day in the USA

We can see some early signs of the new cases curve flattening for the USA, as new cases are decreasing slightly day after day:

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could reach 300,000 by 30th Apr – this is slightly lower than three days ago so there might be a slowing down of the day-to-day increase of number of deaths

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 70-75 by day “39” (18th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could just be slightly over 250 by day “39” (28th Apr) – trend improved due to low deaths reported last few days

  • UK – at current trend, could still pass 20,000 by day “48” (22nd Apr)

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could pass the 40,000 mark by day “50” (21st Apr) – this reflects a significant increase of deaths yesterday

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

  • Thailand and Mexico just swapped places
  • Argentina displaced Morocco on the 10th best place for low number of new cases per 1 million population.  However, number of tests conducted in Argentina is too low (Argentina has the 10th place for the worse country due to low number of tests per 1 million population). It is possible that the case volume is higher in Argentina, if looking at the number of deaths (102), and applying the death ration from Australia, Argentina should have around 9,600 cases currently

  • Italy and Belgium swapped places; Netherlands and Austria swapped places; no other changes

  • Thailand increase the number of recoveries and moved up to 5th ranking; and swapped the 7th spot with Switzerland; no other changes

  • UK did not report a recovery number to the WHO, so the previous number had to be used — It is highly probably the UK recoveries have increased significantly but the country is not reporting the number of recoveries anywhere (not even within the UK to their population)
  • Brazil reported their recoveries so far to the WHO (3046) and dropped off from the worse 10 ranking
  • Sweden climbed up on the ranking, case volume increased but recoveries did not increase at all – Sweden has implemented a policy to go for “herd immunity” and very limited social distancing rules
  • Dominican Republic and Philippines just swapped places; Belarus climed up to make the list; USA remained in the 10th spot of the worst countries for COVID-19 recoveries

  • No changes

  • No changnes

  • South Africa and Chile swapped places ; no other changes

  • Belgium climbed up to 2nd, their cases increased by around 2% overnight but deaths increased by around 8% overnight
  • Hungary case load passed 1,500 and therefore made it to the report now (displaced Egypt from the report)

  • Australia had only reported 41 cases overnight and it climbed up three levels, to the 3rd best country for new cases volume to case volume ratio
  • Thailand and Greece reported very small increase of new cases overnight
  • The Czech Republic implemented a number of regulations to ensure social distancing, and also required masks to be used by the population, their number of new cases is low
  • Germany dropped off from the top-10, but they are still ranked 11th as their volume of new cases is is low

  • Russia and Belarus continue to increase their volume, probably due to more testing
  • India, South Arabia and Ukraine decreased their percentage of new cases from the total case volume overnight; UAE climbed up to the 6th spot as their new case ratio remained the same as yesterday
  • Peru dropped off from the report, overnight new cases were around 5% only (Peru is now in the 20th spot); Colombia made the list as the 10th ranked for the highest number of cases to the total case volume
  • Singapore number of new cases is still increasing at a high pace. Singapore had implemented tough measures right from the start and contained the spready very well, however some of the measures might have been relaxed too soon and new cases are increasing
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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