COVID-19 Graphs 16APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – there continues to be been a slight decline in the rate of new cases world-wide, at current trend the world could now be just over 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr (from almost 4,500,000 four days ago)

  • Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,500 cases by day “39”(18th Apr) – curve is almost flat
  • Argentina – at current trend could reach 4,000 cases by day “39” (28th Apr) – there was a high increase of new cases reported last few days

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet due to new case increases last few days):

  • UK – at current trent, today is day “42” and UK reached 98,476 cases, slightly under the 100,000 cases projected by the curve but very close. The curve seems to start to flatten a bit, but at current trend UK could still have just under 140,000 cases by day “50” (24th Apr), trending better than Italy as per chart

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

  • USA – at current trend, could just reach 800,000 cases by day “50” (21st Apr) which shows a reduction of new cases day-by-day in the USA

We can see some early signs of the new cases curve flattening for the USA, as new cases are decreasing slightly day after day:

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be just under 300,000 by 30th Apr – this is slightly lower than yesterday

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 70-75 by day “39” (18th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could just be slightly under 250 by day “39” (28th Apr) – trend improved due to low deaths reported last few days

  • UK – at current trend, could still pass 20,000 by day “49” (23rd Apr) – one day behing yesterday’s projection, showing a decrease in daily deaths

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could be just under the 45,000 mark by day “50” (21st Apr) – this reflects a significant increase of deaths yesterday (two days in a row already)

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

  • South Africa and Mexico just swapped places; no other changes

  • Italy and Belgium swapped places; Germany and Australia swapped places; no other changes

  • Switzerland jumped up 3 levels in the rank due to 1,700 recoveries overnight (almost 7% of their total caseload increase in one day)
  • Brazil displaced Mexico as Brazil reported their recoveries to WHO yesteday, and it shows a good rate of recoveries to number of confirmed cases. However, Brazil is not testing enough and the caseload in that country could be significantly higher than reported

  • UK did not report a recovery number to the WHO, so I have removed UK from the report as I am sure they have recovered more than 344 cases (only number reported by the UK to the WHO). There is NO data from the UK about the number of recovered cases I have been able to find (if you know of a source, please let me know!)
  • Belarus jumped up 3 levels as their caseload increased but they did not report any increase of recoveries
  • The removal of the UK from this report, allowed for Russia to get in at the 10th place for the worst recoveries per caseload, under the USA which is now in 9th place

  • Germany performed 400,000 new test cases, and moved up on the rank to 4th for number of tests per 1 million population — Germany is starting to plan to open up their economy slowly as they seem to have controlled their COVID-19 crisis. Germany’s Minister for Health (formerly their Finance Minister) was on TV and attributed their great record of handing the crisis to their high quality/highly funded public health system, combined with the high number of top quality GPs to handle 1st level attention of patients with weak symptoms, and with the high number of cases performed since the start — BTW, the 1st test created in the world for COVID-19 was created by Germany !!
  • Spain and Israel swapped places; no other changes

  • Brazil had a large increase of new cases (more than 12% increase) but no increase of testing reported, and due to that swapped places with Mexico
  • No other changes

  • Belarus and Australia swapped places
  • South Africa had a number of deaths reported yesterday and due to that fell down 3 spots in the ranking

  • Sweden reported almost 200 deaths overnight (almost 2% of the caseload) and displaced Indonesia in the 8th spot as the worst country in the world by number of deaths to volume of cases

  • Norway dropped off from the top 10 ranking as they has more than 100 new cases overnight (around 2% of their caseload)
  • Switzerland fell down 3 levels in the ranking as they had 400 new cases overnight
  • Germany and Italy made the ranking with low volumes of new cases reported overnight — This is excellent news for both, specially for Italy !!!

  • Russia is still the 1st of the worst countries with highest volume of new cases compared with the caseload
  • Singapore climbed up to the 2nd place as they had 447 new cases overnight, Singapore is suffereing a 2nd wave of COVID-19. They handled the 1st wave very effectively (lock-down, mandatory masks, quarantine and isolation, etc) but they might have relaxed that too early, and the virus is now spreading again
  • Brazil reported a large number of new cases, volume of tests has not increased significantly in Brazil so this could be a bad sign of community spread, or the reporting of the cases previously identified
  • Peru is back in the report
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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