COVID-19 Graphs 17APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – at current trend the world could now be just over 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,500 cases by day “39”(18th Apr) – curve is almost flat
  • Argentina – last few days, case numbers have increased and at current trend could exceed of 6,000 cases by day “39” (28th Apr) – this could be a sign that testing has been increased in Argentina which is a good sign

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet due to new case increases last few days):

  • UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could still have just under 130,000 cases by day “50” (24th Apr)

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

  • USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could reach 900,000 cases by day “50” (21st Apr)

New cases have increased last few days in the USA:

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be just under 300,000 by 30th Apr – this is slightly lower than yesterday

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 65-70 by day “39” (18th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could just be slightly under 250 by day “39” (28th Apr)

  • UK – number of deaths day by day is decreasing in the UK, at current trend could be around 17,500 by day “50” (24th Apr) – this is great news for the UK

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could reach 70,000 by day “50” (21st Apr) – this reflects a significant increase of deaths day by day, and for a few days

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday. Also, the minimum population size and volume of cases for countries to be included in the reports were adjusted to focus where 80% of the population resides (countries with more than 10 million people), and 80% of the total worldwide case volume (countries with more than 2,250 cases)

  • No comments (new chart)

  • Europe has about 1,000,000 cases as a block and accounts for half of the total caseload worldwide; USA accounts for a third of the total caseload

  • No comments (new chart)

  • Netherlands and Sweden have low recover rates; Netherlands consider the option to go for herd immunity but later changed direction, while Sweden has gone for the herd immunity option – low recover rates could be a consequence of that as patients might not be treated until symptoms are too serious
  • USA showing low recovery rates, the high volume of cases could mean their health system is overwhelmed and that impacts recovery rates

  • Germany continues to perform a significant number of tests
  • Portugal and Spain conducted a significant number of tests and jumped too

  • Indonesia, India, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan and Philippines have very large populations (more than 100 million people) and their level of tests is too low which could present a major COVID-19 risk for the whole world
  • Argentina still not doing enough tests for their population size

  • Thailand and South Korea have been fighting with COVID-19 for almost as long as China, and their death rate to caseload is very small

  • Europe’s rate of deaths to case volums is very high compared with Asian countries

  • China, South Korea, Thailand, Iran and Italy were first hotspots for COVID-19, and they are showing very low volumes of new cases which is very good news for the world that it is posible to control the outbreak

  • Mexico volume of new cases would put the country in the “double every 4-5 days” group which is very serious
  • France has been battling with COVID-19 for some time, but their volume of new cases is still high
  • Argentina has had a significant increase of new cases, probably related to increase of testing (2000 tests conducted overnight, still too low test volume for population)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

One Reply to “COVID-19 Graphs 17APR2020”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.