COVID-19 Graphs 18APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

CONTENT


 
 
 

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – at current trend the world could now be just over 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,500 cases by day “39”(18th Apr) – curve is almost flat
  • Argentina – case numbers decreased, at current trend could exceed of 4,500 cases by day “39” (28th Apr)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet):

  • UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could still have just under 130,000 cases by day “50” (24th Apr)

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

  • USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could reach 900,000 cases by day “50” (21st Apr)

New cases have increased last few days in the USA:


 
 
 

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be just under 300,000 by 30th Apr – this is slightly lower than yesterday

  • Australia – at expected, reached 65 by day “39” (18th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could just be slightly under 280 by day “39” (28th Apr)

  • UK – number of deaths day by day increased again for the UK, at current trend could be around 20,000 by day “50” (24th Apr)

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could reach 60,000 by day “50” (21st Apr) – this reflects a significant increase of deaths day by day, and for a few days


 
 
 

Germany vs. Sweden – Two very different approaches

Both countries have been fighting COVID-19 for a while (Germany 6 days more than Sweden). Germany has implemented a heavy testing protocols, lock-downs and quarantine, etc; while Sweden has gone for “herd immunity” and has very limited lock-downs (only high risks individuals).

New cases are starting to reduce day by day in both countries, and the curve of new cases is starting to flatten.

Number of deaths continues to grown for both countries, but the Swedish curve is climbing right up and, at current trend, in one week it could pass the number of deaths of Germany in the same day (e.g.  day “53” for Sweden will be 27th Apr, and Sweden could have more than 8,000 deaths; while Germany would be under 7,000 deaths)

The best way to compare both countries in their results to deal with COVID-19 is to look at their case and death volumes as a percentage of their population. The following charts show case and death numbers per 10,000 people for both countries and demonstrates the difference in their results:

Sweden and Germany have had similar caseloads per 10,000 people from start and day-by-day. Meaning the difference of approach has not caused differences to COVID=19 spread.

However, number of deaths is where the difference is between the approaches. At current trend, Sweden could have four times (4x) the number of deaths per 10,000 people than Germany.  This could mean that Sweden death toll from COVID-19 could exceed of 15,000 people by 1st June; for a country with only 10 million to lose 15,000 people is significant … it represents 1% of the total population of their capital Stockholm.


 
 
 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday. Also, the minimum population size and volume of cases for countries to be included in the reports were adjusted to focus where 80% of the population resides (countries with more than 10 million people), and 80% of the total worldwide case volume (countries with more than 2,500 cases)

  • No changes

  • No changes

  • Germany and Austria swapped places

  • Russia and Philippines swapped places
  • Turkey and Poland used to be on 9th and 10th places; but they improved their recoveries – Japan and Ecuador took their spaces

  • Portugal increased number of tests again (13,000 tests overnight)
  • Germany continues to perform a significant number of tests
  • Italy and Spain swapped places
  • USA displaced South Korea on the 10th position (finally, USA is doing more tests)

  • Morocco passed the 2,500 cases overnight and made the 6th slot in the report pushing
  • Argentina still not doing enough tests for their population size

  • Saudi Arabia and Chile swapped places

  • France and Netherlands swapped places
  • Europe’s rate of deaths to case volums is very high compared with Asian countries

  • China and South Korea swapped places
  • Portugal and France have been heavily investing in tests, and the number of new cases have dropped taking the 4th and 6th spots
  • Is good to see Iran number of new cases dropping, as they’ve been battling with COVID-19 for a long time and suffered greatly – this could be a good sign of the disease starting to be under control there

  • Russia continues to increase the caseload heavily
  • Dominican Republic reported a high number of new cases overnight
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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