COVID-19 Graphs 19APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

CONTENT

 

COVID-19 Cases

  • World – at current trend the world could reach 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,750 cases by day “45”(24th Apr) – curve is almost flat
  • Argentina – case numbers decreased, at current trend could exceed of 4,500 cases by day “45” (4th May)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet):

  • UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be around 130,000 cases by day “50” (24th Apr)

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

  • USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could reach 1,100,000 cases by day “55” (26th Apr)

New cases have increased last few days in the USA:

 

COVID-19 Deaths

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be just under 300,000 by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could reached 80 by day “45” (24th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could be just over 250 by day “45” (4th May)

  • UK – number of deaths day by day increased again for the UK, at current trend could be over 20,000 by day “50” (24th Apr)

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could be over 80,000 by day “53” (24th Apr) – this reflects a significant increase of deaths day-by-day

 

Germany vs. Sweden – Two very different approaches


INTRO: Both countries have been fighting COVID-19 for a while (Germany 6 days more than Sweden). Germany has implemented a heavy testing protocols, lock-downs and quarantine, etc; while Sweden has gone for “herd immunity” and has very limited lock-downs (only high risks individuals).

New cases are starting to reduce day by day in both countries, and the curve of new cases is starting to flatten.

Number of deaths continues to grown for both countries, but the Swedish curve continues to climb right up and. At current trend, Sweden could exceed of 10,000 deaths by day “86” (31st May); while Germany could be around 15,000 by its day “86” (24th May). Germany has 8x the population of Sweeden.

Compare countries by case and death volumes as a percentage of their population. The following charts show case and death numbers per 10,000 people for both countries and demonstrates the difference in their results:

Still, Sweden and Germany have had similar caseloads per 10,000 people from start and day-by-day.

Still, number of deaths for Sweden is already higher than that of Germany, and trend is projecting that by day “55” (30th Apr) Sweden would have little under 6x the mortality rate than Germany.

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today


The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Also, I received feedback about the last 2 rankings for “new cases” (Thanks Vivienne Kish!). To call them “best” or “worst” 10 countries is totally misleading, and a country with low number of new cases might get that by not doing enough testing; while a country with higher levels of test tend to have higher volumes of new cases. So, I have renamed the rankings, removed the “best” or “worst” from them but still show the countries with higest and lowest volumes of new cases.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Algeria reached 2,500 cases and displaced Argentina in the last spot for lowest cases per 1M population ; no other changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Germany and Austria swapped places again ; Chile reported a high volume of recoveries reaching the 9th spot ; Brazil dropped off from this ranking (due to a large number of new cases reported overnight)

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Ecuador reported a number of recoveries overnight, and dropped off from the list

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • New ranking added showing the number of recoveries overnight proportional to the number of cases; Australia tops this ranking with more than 5% recoveries overnight
  • It’s good to see Thailand and Iran in this ranking as they’ve been fighting COVID-19 for almost as long as China

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Italy and Germany swapped places; no other changes

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Algeria passed 2,500 cases and made it in the raking at the top as they have the lowest number of tests per 1M population
  • Egypt increase number of tests and dropped down in this ranking (still not enough tests conducted)
  • Argentina still not doing enough tests for their population size

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • New ranking added to show number of new tests performed proportional to 1M population
  • Australia still investing heavily in testing

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Saudi Arabia and Thailand swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • Algeria passed 2,500 cases overnight and made it in the 2nd place, pushing everyone else down 1 place

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • China and South Korea swapped places
  • It is encouraging to see Spain, Iran and Italy in this report; all these countries are heavily testing and they have had a tough battle with COVID-19 – Low new case volume might indicate they are starting to control the disease

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Russia continues to increase the caseload heavily; but Russia is heavily testing (more than 113,000 tests conducted overnight)
  • Saudi Arabia and India have reported a large number of new cases; and neither country has increased their testing effort significantly
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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