COVID-19 Graphs 20APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

CONTENT

COVID-19 Cases

 

  • World – at current trend the world could reach 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,750 cases by day “45”(24th Apr) – curve is almost flat
  • Argentina – case numbers decreased, at current trend could just exceed of 4,500 cases by day “45” (4th May)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet):

  • UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be around 130,000 cases by day “50” (24th Apr)

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

  • USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could exceed of 1,000,000 cases by day “55” (26th Apr)

New cases have increased last few days in the USA:

COVID-19 Deaths

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be just under 300,000 by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could reached 80 by day “45” (24th Apr)
  • Argentina – at current trend could be just under 250 by day “45” (4th May)

  • UK – number of deaths day by day increased again for the UK, at current trend could reach 20,000 by day “50” (24th Apr)

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could be over 70,000 by day “53” (24th Apr) – this reflects a significant increase of deaths day-by-day

Germany vs. Sweden – Two very different approaches

INTRO: Both countries have been fighting COVID-19 for a while (Germany 6 days more than Sweden). Germany has implemented a heavy testing protocols, lock-downs and quarantine, etc; while Sweden has gone for “herd immunity” and has very limited lock-downs (only high risks individuals).

New cases are starting to reduce day by day in both countries, and the curve of new cases is starting to flatten.

Number of deaths continues to grown for both countries, but the Swedish curve continues to climb right up and. At current trend, Sweden could exceed of 10,000 deaths by day “86” (31st May); while Germany could be around 15,000 by its day “86” (24th May). Germany has 8x the population of Sweeden.

Compare countries by case and death volumes as a percentage of their population. The following charts show case and death numbers per 10,000 people for both countries and demonstrates the difference in their results:

Still, Sweden and Germany have had similar caseloads per 10,000 people from start and day-by-day.

Number of deaths for Sweden is already higher than that of Germany per 10,000 people; and trend is projecting that by day “55” (30th Apr) Sweden would have little under 5x the mortality rate than Germany.

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Mexico fell 2 spots to the 9th rank due to a small increase of caseload

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • UK and Germany swapped places

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Thailand and Iran swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Russia and Dominican Republic swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Thailand was one of the first countries hit by COVID-19 after China, and they have a small caseload (population similar to Italy), more than 50% already recovered, and continues to recover high numbers daily
  • Germany has more than 50% of their caseload already recovered, and it still recovering high volumes on a daily basis
  • Malaysia also has a small caseload but twice that of Thailand (while Malaysia has half of the population of Thailand); their recovery rate is high too (more than 50% of the caseload)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Russia and Belgium swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Mexico and Morocco swapped places; Egypt and Philippines swapped places
  • Argentina still not doing enough tests for their population size

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Saudi Arabia had a large test investment overnight (1% of their population)
  • Italy continues on the 2nd spot with almost 1% testing overnight
  • Australia still investing heavily in testing (steadyly about 0.5-0.6% daily)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Saudi Arabia and Australia swapped places; Thailand and South Africa swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Large number of new cases in Spain overnight (6,948 new cases), country dropped off from this ranking (used to be on 3rd place) – no new tests were reported by Spain overnight; but Spain is on the top 10 for highest test volume per 1M population (significant test effort already conducted)
  • France has a low volume of new cases overnight, however no new tests were reported and France test volume is not high (little over 1 third of the number of tests conducted by Spain per 1M population)
  • Iran and Italy are still reporting low new case volumes which is a great sign as both countries have been suffering with COVID-19 badly

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Russia continues to increase the caseload heavily; but Russia continues to test heavily
  • Saudi Arabia and India again reported a large number of new cases; India has not increased their testing effort significantly but Saudi Arabia had a very large testing increase overnight (1% of their population overnight)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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