COVID-19 Graphs 21APR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

CONTENT

 

COVID-19 Cases


 

  • World – at current trend the world could reach 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

  • Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,750 cases by day “45”(24th Apr) – curve is almost flat
  • Argentina – case numbers decreased, at current trend could just exceed of 4,500 cases by day “45” (4th May)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (not flattening yet):

  • UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be justĀ  under 140,000 cases by day “50” (24th Apr)

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

  • USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could be around 900,000 cases by day “55” (26th Apr)

New cases have increased last few days in the USA:

 

COVID-19 Deaths


 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 260,000 by 30th Apr (small reduction)

  • Australia – at current trend, could reached 75 by day “45” (24th Apr) – small reduction
  • Argentina – at current trend could be just under 220 by day “45” (4th May) – small reduction

  • UK – number of deaths day by day have decreased sligthly, at current trend could be under 20,000 by day “50” (24th Apr)

  • USA – at the current trent, the USA could exceed 60,000 by day “53” (24th Apr)

 

Germany vs. Sweden – Two very different approaches


INTRO: Both countries have been fighting COVID-19 for a while (Germany 6 days more than Sweden). Germany has implemented a heavy testing protocols, lock-downs and quarantine, etc; while Sweden has gone for “herd immunity” and has very limited lock-downs (only high risks individuals).

New cases are starting to reduce day by day in both countries. Germany’s new cases are reducing faster than Sweden’s:

Here is a comparison of the day-by-day new case volume for Germany vs. Sweden, where you can see Germany’s curve is starting to flatten while Sweden’s curve is not:

Number of deaths continues to grown for both countries:

Compare countries by case and death volumes as a percentage of their population. The following charts show case and death numbers per 10,000 people for both countries and demonstrates the difference in their results:

Still, Sweden and Germany have had similar caseloads per 10,000 people from start and day-by-day.

Number of deaths for Sweden is already higher than that of Germany per 10,000 people; and trend is projecting that by day “55” (30th Apr) Sweden would have little under 4x the mortality rate than Germany (small reduction fromĀ  yesterday’s projection which was 5x)

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today


The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Bangladesh pass the 2,500 cases and made it in this report to the 2nd place, displacing all other countries
  • China and Philippines swapped places; Mexico dropped off (on 11th place)

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • USA and France swapped places (USA caseload is increasing significantly day by day; while Spain, Belgium and Italy’s caseloads are increasing at a lower pace as they are showing more control of the infection)

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Brazil reported a large number of recoveries (more than 50% of their caseload) – Brazil’s government did not treat the crisis seriously, ignored all early signs to take preventive measures and did not perform enough tests

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Bangladesh passed 2,500 cases and made it in this ranking at the 2nd place; displacing other countries; USA and Philippines swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • As stated in previous report, Brazil reported a large number of recoveries
  • A large number of countries did not report any new recoveries to the WHO overnight

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Bangladesh passed 2,500 and made it into this ranking on the 3rd place
  • Argentina dropped off due to the addition of Bangladesh, however it is still in the 11th place (not doing enough tests for their population size)

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Dominican Republic reported a large investment in tests overnight
  • Russia and USA keep investing heavily in testing too
  • Australia still investing heavily in testing (steadyly about 0.5-0.6% daily)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • Italy and UK swapped places (the number of new deaths in the UK is reducing)

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Spain is back on this ranking for low new cases per case volume, good sign that Spain is controlling the crisis
  • France dropped off from this list as there were a large number of new cases overnight – France still has a low volume of tests conducted
  • Iran and Italy are still reporting low new case volumes which is a great sign as both countries have been suffering with COVID-19 badly

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Bangladesh passed the 2,500 cases and made it into this ranking to 1st place, displacing other countries
  • Turkey has been identified as the new hotspot for the virus, caseload is increasing – Turkey has similar population size to Iran; Turkey has already exceeded Iran’s caseload, they have less than a 1/4 of Iran’s recovery rate, almost 1/2 the number of deaths and Turkey is in its day “32” while Iran is in day “54”. At this pace, Turkey’s toll from COVID-19 could be significantly higher than Iran’s.
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

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