CONTENT

• Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations
• COVID-19 Cases Analisys for the World, Australia, Argentina, UK and the USA
• COVID-19 Deaths Analisys for the World, Australia, Argentina, UK and the USA
• Germany vs. Sweden – Two very different approaches
• Best and Worst Performers as of Today
• Data Source Links

 

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

 
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control publishes a data export daily with the COVID-19 case and death numbers for all countries and territories in spreadsheet format, which allowed me to easily create these reports now. The link to these extracts can be found at the bottom of this web page.

The idea is to compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark), but instead of using number of cases and number of deaths, to use their relative number to the countries 1 million population (1M). The more population, the more a country is expossed to the spread of the virus, and the more important it is for the whole workd that spread is controlled well.

I did not expect the results I got form this report at all, it was a total surprise to me and I have been following the COVID-19 crisis through this data from the start. I think this reports provide for some very interesting reflection about the way the crisis is handled worldwide.

Argentina vs. Australia vs. China

When looking at number of cases per 1M people, Australia caseload grew higher than Argentina and China day after day; it’s great that we have controlled the spread in Australia

When considering number of deaths to 1M people, Argentina is growing higher than Australia and China. The curve for China has flattened, and the one for Australia is showing signs of flattening, while the one for Argentina is not flattening yet.

USA vs. UK vs. China

Number of cases per 1M people for USA and UK have followed very similar trajectories, they are still climbing up and the USA is increasing further.

Number of deaths by 1M people for UK is far higher than for the USA (about 2x).

France vs. Italy vs. Spain vs. China

Spain is almost twice the number of cases per 1M people than Italy, while Italy is 50% more than France.

Spain is also about 25% higher than Italy in number of deaths by 1M population, while France is near Italy’s trajectory.

Germany vs. Sweden vs. China

Germany and Sweden had similar trajectories when considering number of cases per 1M people.

However, Sweden has more about 4x the number of deaths per 1M people than Germany; and Sweden’s trend is climbing up while Germany seems to ge starting to flatten.

Highest Case Volume per 1M Population (+China)

Spain is the highest, but closely followed by Belgium, then Italy and then USA

Belgium has the highest number of deaths, followed by Spain, then Italy and then France and Netherlands.

Lowest Number of Deaths per 1M Population (+China)

Chile has the highest number of cases, and it is in an upwards trajectory; Russia is the same. While all other countries’ curves seem to be flattening already.

Again, Chile has the highest deaths, more than twice of any other country in this list. Similiarly as in the cases chart above, Chile and Russia’s trajectories are climbing right up while other countries seem to be flattening the curve.

 

 

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

 

• Australia – at current trend, could still reach 6,750 cases by day “45”(24th Apr) – curve is almost flat
• Argentina – case numbers decreased, at current trend could just exceed of 4,500 cases by day “45” (4th May)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (starting to flatten a bit):

• UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be just under 140,000 cases by day “50” (24th Apr)

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

• USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could be around 900,000 cases by day “53” (24th Apr)

New cases have increased last few days in the USA:

 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 260,000 by 30th Apr (small reduction)

• Australia – at current trend, could reached 75 by day “45” (24th Apr) – small reduction
• Argentina – at current trend could be just under 220 by day “45” (4th May) – small reduction

• UK – number of deaths day by day have decreased sligthly, at current trend could be under 20,000 by day “50” (24th Apr)

• USA – at the current trent, the USA could reach just under 60,000 by day “53” (24th Apr)

 

 

Germany vs. Sweden – Two very different approaches

 
INTRO: Both countries have been fighting COVID-19 for a while (Germany 6 days more than Sweden). Germany has implemented a heavy testing protocols, lock-downs and quarantine, etc; while Sweden has gone for “herd immunity” and has very limited lock-downs (only high risks individuals).

New cases are starting to reduce day by day in both countries. Germany’s new cases are reducing faster than Sweden’s:

Number of deaths continues to grown for both countries:

Compare countries by case and death volumes as a percentage of their population. The following charts show case and death numbers per 10,000 people for both countries and demonstrates the difference in their results:

Still, Sweden and Germany have had similar caseloads per 10,000 people from start and day-by-day.

Number of deaths for Sweden is already higher than that of Germany per 10,000 people; and trend is projecting that by day “55” (30th Apr) Sweden would have little under 4x the mortality rate than Germany (small reduction from  yesterday’s projection which was 5x)

 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

 
The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Thailand and Pakistan swapped places; China and South Africa swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Algeria reported recoveries to WHO and displaced Peru on the 10th place

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• UK and Netherlands did not report recoveries to the WHO (they reporte “N/A” for their number of recoveries; UK has been doing that for sometime and this is the first day Netherlands has joined the UK in not reporting data of recoveries — they are the only 2 countries in the world that do not provide recoveries data to WHO)
• Bangladesh took the 1st place with only 2 recoveries reported overnight
• Sweden took the 2nd place with no recoveries reported overnight

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Australia reported 427 recoveries last night, more than 70% of the Australian caseload has been recovered — Well done OZ !!!

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Saudi Arabia displaced USA  in the 10th spot (USA is in the 11th)

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Brazil used to be on the 5th spot, but reported more than 200,000 tests conducted to WHO therefore dropped off from this list
• Argentina is still not doing enough tests for their population size

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• As said previously, Saudi Arabia and Brazil reported large increases of testing to WHO and climbed up in this ranking
• Sweden reported large test effort too; however Sweden has a similar population to Portugal (around 10 million) and Portugal has conducted 3x the number of tests Sweden has. Portugal has 50% more cases than Sweden; but Portugal has less than half the numbre of deaths than Sweden. That is another practical demonstration of the power of tests to reduce deaths.
• Australia still investing heavily in testing, dropped to the 13th place

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• South Africa reported no deaths from the virus overnight and displaced Malaysia on the 5th spot (Malaysia reported 2 deaths, Thailand 1 death)
• South Korea and Japan swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• UK and Italy swapped places; Sweden and Netherlands swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• South Korea and Australia swapped places
• Thailand, Iran and Italy are still reporting low new case volumes which is a great sign — They have been battling with COVID-19 for almost as long as China

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Bangladesh still at the top, with a large number of cases reported overnight
• Pakistan had a large number of cases reported overnight as well
• Russia, South Arabia and Mexico reported large increases of caseloads overnight (they’ve done that for several days already)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

 

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide