CONTENT

• COVID-19 Cases Analisys for the World, Australia, Argentina, UK and the USA
• COVID-19 Deaths Analisys for the World, Australia, Argentina, UK and the USA
• Best and Worst Performers as of Today
• Data Source Links

 

 

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could just reach 3,000,000 cases by 30th Apr (small reduction!)

• Australia – at current trend, could be under 6,750 cases by day “45”(24th Apr) – curve is almost flat
• Argentina – case numbers decreased, at current trend could just exceed of 4,500 cases by day “45” (4th May)

Australia’s curve:

Argentina’s curve (starting to flatten a bit):

• UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be just under 150,000 cases by day “55” (29th Apr)

UK’s curve is starting to show sings of flattening, with the number of new cases decreasing:

• USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could reach 1,000,000 cases by day “55” (26th Apr)

New cases have increased last few days in the USA:

 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be under 250,000 by 30th Apr (small reduction!)

• Australia – at current trend, could reached 75-80 by day “45” (24th Apr)
• Argentina – at current trend could be little over 200 by day “45” (4th May) – small reduction!

• UK – at current trend could be just under 25,000 by day “55” (29th Apr)

• USA – at the current trent, the USA could reach just under 70,000 by day “55” (26th Apr)

 

 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Philippines and South Africa swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Thailand increased its recoveries, they have more than 80% of their caseload recovered now (Great news!)
• Australia and Iran swapped places, as Australia reported 235 recoveries overnight

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• UK and Netherlands did not report recoveries to the WHO (they reporte “N/A” for their number of recoveries; UK has been doing that for sometime and this is the first day Netherlands has joined the UK in not reporting data of recoveries — they are the only 2 countries in the world that do not provide recoveries data to WHO)
• USA climbed up 2 ranks to the 6th position; the number of recovered cases in the USA is still low (under 10%)
• Dominican Republic, Ecuador and Japan just swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Thailand reported 244 recoveries last night , more than 80% of their caseload is recovered
• Brazil also reported a large number of recoveries last night which is very encouraging (Brazil has the largest caseload in South America)
• Australia reported 235 more recoveries last night, 74% of the Australian caseload has been recovered — Well done OZ !!!

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Russia and Canada swapped places
• USA displaced Saudi Arabia for the 10th spot (Saudi Aragia is now in the 11th)
• On his daily report, Donald Trump reported yesteday that USA had performed more COVID-19 tests than all the other countries in the world combined. This is totally incorrect. USA performed more than 4 million tests which is more than any other country in the world, but very little when taking into account the USA population is more than 330 million. Russia performed more than 2 million, and their population is less than half that of the USA. Germany performed more than 2.2 million and their population is about a quarter of the USA population. Just Russia and Germany together add up to more tests than those performed by the USA as of today.

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Bangladesh and Indonesia swapped places
• Argentina is still not doing enough tests for their population size

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Germany performed 344,312 tests overnight, and took the 1st spot
• Sweden did not report additional tests overnight, and dropped off from this report
• Australia still investing heavily in testing, dropped to the 13th place

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Malaysia, Thailand and South Africa swapped places
• Turkey displaced Japan for the 10th spot (Japan now on the 11th)

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Mexico and Indonesia swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Australia and South Korea swapped places (very low number of new cases reported to WHO overnight)
• France reported a low number of cases (relative to their caseload) and displaced Germany in the 7th spot – Italy dropped off from this ranking as they reported almost 2% caseload increase overnight

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Bangladesh still at the top, with a large number of cases reported overnight
• Russia, South Arabia and Mexico still reported large increases of caseloads overnight (they’ve done that for several days already)
• Morocco made it to this ranking with almost 7% caseload increase overnight
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases)
• China is at the top of cases recovered and bottom of deaths per population
• Iran and Germany have similar population sizes (around 83 million) and they have been fighting with COVID-19 for similar lengths — Iran has little over 1/2 of Germany’s caseload, but Germany has conducted 7x the number of tests
  • Iran has 66% of its caseload recovered and 6.2% deaths
  • Germany has 66% of its caseload recovered and 3.5% deaths
  • With Iran’s test effort so much lower than Germany, it is possible that Iran’s caseload is actually around 2x the reported number, then their death rate would match Germany’s
• Another claim from Donald Trump is that USA is doing “as well, or better than Germany” — Germany has about a 1/4 of the population of the USA, but Germany has little over 1/6 of the number of cases of the USA
  • Germany has 66% of its caseload recovered, and around 3.5% deaths
  • USA has less than 10% of its caseload recovered (1/6 that of Germany) and 5.6% deaths (more than 1/2 that of Germany)

 

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide