Note:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites. 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain has the highest caseload per 1M people; followed by Belgium

• Belgium has the highest deaths per 1M people and it is in a steep climb up; followed by Spain

Lowest Death Numbers per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Russia’s caseload is growing at a higher rate than any other country in this group – All other countries seem to have “flatten” the curve

• Again Russia’s trajectory shows a steep climb, while all other countries are showing a flattening of the curve

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Ecuador trajectory is going on a very bad trajectory compared to all other countries in this group
• Russia and Saudi Arabia as also on a steep climb up, lower caseloads per 1M population but still going up

• Ecuador again is showing a very steep climb on number of deaths, more than twice (2x) the trajectory of other countries in this group
• Brazil is next with number of deaths climbing up; followed by Mexico

Comparing: Argentina, Australia, China, Germany and Sweden

• Germany and Sweden are on a similar trajectory – Projections for both curves show Sweden could pass Germany before being able to flatten the curve
• Argentina’s caseload trajectory per 1M population matches China’s

• Here is where there is a big difference between Sweden and Germany’s approaches. Germany seems to be starting to flatten the deaths curve; but Sweden is still on a steep climb up – Projections show that Sweden could have around five times (5x) the number of deaths per 1M than Germany by day “65”, which for Sweden will be on 12th May.
• Australia and Argentina’s death curves are way lower than Germany and Sweden

 

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

• Australia – at current trend, could be under 7,000 cases by day “50”(29th Apr)
• Argentina – case numbers decreased, at current trend could be around 4,500 cases by day “50” (9th May)

• UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be just under 160,000 cases by day “55” (29th Apr)

• USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could reach 1,000,000 cases by day “55” (26th Apr) – the projection for day “59” (30th Apr) is for little over 1,200,000 cases

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be under 250,000 by 30th Apr (small reduction!)

• Australia – at current trend, could still be under 100 by day “50” (29th Apr)
• Argentina – at current trend could be little over 250 by day “50” (9th May) – small reduction!

• UK – at current trend could be just under 22,500 by day “55” (29th Apr) – small reduction

• USA – at the current trend, the USA could be over 60,000 by day “55” (26th Apr) – the projection for day “59” (30th Apr) is for deaths to reach 80,000

 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Chile and Brazil swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Ecuador number of cases is growing rapidly and they are not recovering as quickly, that’s why they’ve gone from the 9th spot to the 4th spot

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Large number of recoveries reported by Chile, Czech Republic, Germany, Thailand and Iran
• Turkey reported large recovery numbers which is promising as they are considered the new hotspot for COVID-19 in their area

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Canada and Russia swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Indonesia climbed up due to a correction in their population size only
• Argentina is still not doing enough tests for their population size

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Massive testing effort reported by the USA with almost 500,000 tests done overnight
• Netherlands dropped off to the 12th spot, while Ecuador had a large test effort overnight (more than 20K tests, almost a 50% increase of their total tests) and took the 3rd spot
• Large test efforts continue in Portugal, Canada, Italy, Russia, Belgium, Australia and Turkey (they’ve been doing this consistently for many days)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Italy and Algeria swapped place

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• The Czech Republic reported very low new cases and climbed up to the 5th spot (they have implemented lots of early measures to control the outbreak, they have a small caseload per population, with large testing efforts and low death rates)
• New cases in France, Germany, Iran and Italy are reducing; this is a good sign that the crisis might be controlled there (they’ve been dealing with COVID-19 for a long time)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Ecuador is considered the hotspot in South America, with 50% increase of cases overnight
• Bangladesh, Russia, Ukraine, South Arabia, Peru and Brazil still reported large increases of caseloads overnight (they’ve done that for several days already)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases) – Cells in YELLOW indicate increases of more than 5%
• Singapore caseload has increased again, more than 5% overnight – Singapore is dealing with a 2nd wave of the COVID-19 crisis

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide