Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain continues to have the highest, followed by Belgium
• USA is probably going to pass Italy on cases per 1M people tomorrow (for day “55”)

• Belgium still has the highest, followed by Spain

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Ecuador seems to be stabilising, Russia and Saudi Arabia continue on a steep climb up, Brazil’s caseload is the next growing fast

• Ecuador continues on a steep climb, followed by Brazil (around 1/2 the number of deaths per 1M than Ecuador)
• Mexico continues to be 3rd after Brazil, and still climbing

Comparing: Argentina, Australia, China, Germany and Sweden

• Sweden past Germany on cases per 1M people today

• Sweden continues on its trend to possibly get more than 5x the number of deaths per 1M people than Germany

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

• Australia – at current trend, could be under 7,000 cases by day “50”(29th Apr)
• Argentina – there was a high jump on number of new cases in Argentina (more than 300 cases overnight), at current trend could be around 6,000 cases by day “50” (9th May)

• UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be just under 160,000 cases by day “55” (29th Apr)

• USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could reach 1,000,000 cases by day “55” (26th Apr) – the projection for day “59” (30th Apr) is for little over 1,200,000 cases

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be under 250,000 by 30th Apr (small reduction!)

• Australia – at current trend, could still be under 100 by day “50” (29th Apr)
• Argentina – there was a large increase of new deaths at Argentina, at current trend could be little over 275 by day “50” (9th May)

• UK – at current trend could be just under 22,500 by day “55” (29th Apr) – small reduction

• USA – at the current trend, the USA could be around 60,000 by day “55” (26th Apr) – the projection for day “59” (30th Apr) is for deaths to reach 80,000

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Algeria and South Africa swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• UK and Netherlands swapped places

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Mexico reported a large number of recoveries overnight and climbed up to the 8th spot, displacing Chile and Brazil down (and removing Argentina from this report)

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Portugal swapped places with Sweden; Ukraine and Russia swapped places
• USA had an increase of recoveries relative to the new cases overnight, and climbed down to the 10th spot (good news for the USA)

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Mexico reported a very large number of recoveries (more than 50% of their total of recoveries) overnight
• Brazil also reported a large number of recoveries overnight
• Large number of recoveries continues to be reported by Turkey, Australia and Chile
• Sweden reported a large number of recoveries overnight too (good news for Sweden, their deaths per 1M are higher than other places in Europe)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Russia and Canada swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Massive testing effort reported by the Portugal and Kazakhstan
• Russia and Italy continue to invest heavily in testing (more than 1000 tests per 1M population conducted overnight)
• USA, Czech Republic, Peru, Australia and Turkey continue to perform significant numbers of tests overnight
• First time we see UK in this report, and it is good to see that tests are increasing in the UK

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Kazakhstan made it to the report first time as they passed the 2,500 cases

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Greece passed the 2,500 cases and made it into the report, with a very small case increase
• New cases in Malaysia, Germany, France, Canada, Italy and Iran are reducing; this is a great sign

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Peru had a large increase of number of new cases overnight (more than 14%); this could be related to timing of reporting to the WHO
• Brazil had a large increase too (more than 10%), but Brazil has been consistently increasing its caseload more than 5-7% overnight which is very concerning
• Argentina had a large increase of new cases overnight — Have not been able to find out what was the cause in the news; will continue to research
• India has a large caseload increase overnight (almost 7%)
• Bangladesh, Ukraine and South Arabia still reported large increases of caseloads overnight (they’ve done that for several days already)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases) – Cells in YELLOW indicate increases of more than 5%
• Singapore caseload has increased again, but their number of recoveries per 1M also increased overnight which might be great news (no new deaths)

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide