Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain continues to have the highest, followed closely by Belgium – Spain seem to start showing signs of the curve flattening, while Belgium continues to climb up and it’s possible that it would catch up with Spain within a week
• USA is almost caught up with Italy today, and at current trend it will pass Italy tomorrow (for day “56”)

• Belgium still has the highest and there are no signs of flattening
• Spain’s curve is flattening; Germany has a death rate per 1M people significantly lower than all countries in the group

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Ecuador seems to be stabilising but still at a higher caseload per 1M people than any other country
• Russia and Saudi Arabia continue on a steep climb up, and at the current trajectory could catch up with Ecuador in about a week

• Ecuador is still higher than all other countries, but Brazil is on a steep upwards trajectory and could catch up with Ecuador by mid May

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

• Australia and NZ flattened the curve, NZ just about 50 cases per 1M under Australia
• Argentina’s curve is very close to China’s, and it is way below Australia and NZ; however is not yet flat and it keeps increasing slowly

• Argentina and New Zealand have very similar death curves; with Australia very near but a bit lower. The three curves are very close to China’s curve, and most countries around the world are way away from China’s curve
• Argentina’s death curve still shows an upwards trajectory, while Australia and NZ seem to be flattened

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

• All countries trajectories from a case perspective are all very similar, with Germany showing a flattening, while UK and Sweden on an upwards trend still

• There is a big difference on the death curve, while Germany is about 4x less than the other countries.

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 3,500,000 cases by 30th Apr

• Australia – at current trend, could be under 7,000 cases by day “50”(29th Apr)
• Argentina – there was a high jump on number of new cases in Argentina (more than 300 cases overnight), at current trend could be around 6,000 cases by day “50” (9th May)

• UK – the curve is flattening, at current trend UK could be just under 160,000 cases by day “55” (29th Apr)

• USA – there was a big jump of number of new cases in the USA last couple of days, at current trend could reach 1,000,000 cases by day “55” (26th Apr) – the projection for day “59” (30th Apr) is for little over 1,200,000 cases

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be under 225,000 by 30th Apr (small reduction!)

• Australia – at current trend, could still be under 100 by day “50” (29th Apr)
• Argentina – there was a large increase of new deaths at Argentina, at current trend could be little over 275 by day “50” (9th May)

• UK – at current trend could be just under 22,500 by day “55” (29th Apr) – small reduction

• USA – at the current trend, the USA could be around 60,000 by day “55” (26th Apr) – the projection for day “59” (30th Apr) is for deaths to reach 70,000 (small reduction!)

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Indonesia and Bangladesh swapped places; Thailand and Egypt swapped places; China and Pakistan swapped places; South Africa and Algeria swapped places – No significant changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Australia and South Korea swapped places; Spain increased recoveries and got on the 9th place; Brazil was displaced from the top 10 (but recoveries high in Brazil still, 11th place)

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Sweden and Portugal swapped places
• Japan increased recoveries per caseload, and improve their position by lowering to the 10th spot

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Spain has a large number of new recoveries reported overnight, they have recovered more than 50% of their caseload by now
• Turkey, Australia and Canada continue to report new recoveries at a good pace
• Argentina reported a large number of recoveries for their caseload last night

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Spain and Germany swapped places; USA and Belgium swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• India and Mexico swapped places

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Large testing effort by Spain and Russia overnight; followed by Kazakhstan

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Netherlands and Sweden swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• New cases in France, Germany, Canada and Italy are reducing; this is a great sign

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Peru still reported a large increase of number of new cases overnight (more than 7%)
• Argentina dropped from this report today, and the caseload increase from yesterday could have been related to community transmission cases found in a couple of shanty towns (villa miseria) around Buenos Aires – this has been deemed too dangerous by their government, and their total lock-down has been extended last night to 10th May (they started their total lock-down on 20th March)
• Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, Ukraine and India still reported large increases of caseloads overnight (they’ve done that for several days already)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases) – Cells in YELLOW indicate increases of more than 5%
• Japan has reported a small increase of recoveries per 1M people
• Singapore caseload has increased again, but their number of recoveries per 1M also increased overnight which might be great news (no new deaths) – Singapore has about the same population as Denmark ; Singapore caseload is now 50% higher than Denmark’s, the number of recoveries is one fifth (1/5) that of Denmark’s but the number of deaths in Singapore are 3% the number of Denmark (Singapore 12 deaths, Denmark 422 deaths). Even though COVID-19 cases are spreading in Singapore, they are keeping their number of deaths extremely low.

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide