Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain continues to have the highest,  but Belgium is approaching and at current trend it will pass Spain in just a few days
• USA has passed Italy

• Belgium still has the highest and there are no signs of flattening

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Ecuador did not report cases for a few days,  and all cases were reported at once overnight which explains the high increase. There are more than 23,000 cases in Ecuador today, their population is about 17 million so about two-thirds (2/3) that of Australia and it has already almost four times (4x) our caseload
• Russia and Saudi Arabia continue on a steep climb up, but significantly lower than Ecuador

• Ecuador is still higher than all other countries, but no new deaths have been reported yet – It is possible that there will be a large number of deaths reported at once soon
• Brazil continues on a steep upwards trajectory and could catch up with Ecuador by mid May

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

• Australia and NZ flattened the curve, NZ just about 50 cases per 1M under Australia
• Argentina’s curve continues to increase slowly

• Argentina and New Zealand have very similar death curves; with Australia near but a bit lower.

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

• All countries trajectories from a case perspective are all very similar
• Sweden has passed Germany

• Germany still about a fourth (1/4) of Sweden’s
• Sweden is in a steep climb trajectory, and might pass Netherlands and the UK  by mid May

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

• UK – at current trend UK could be just under 250,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could pass 1,600,000 cases by 15th May

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 450,000 by 15th May

If that is the case, the number of COVID-19 deaths could exceed the number of deaths caused by Parkinson, Meningitis, Alcohol Use, Hepatitis, Fires, etc. (using 2017 data). The COVID-19 crisis will not be over by 15th May yet.

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 110 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could still be around 280 by 15th May

• UK – at current trend could be just around 33,000 by 15th May

• USA – at the current trent, deaths could reach 100,000 by 15th May

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Algeria and South Africa swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

–

• Mexico increased their recoveries and took the 8th spot

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• USA increased their recoveries and dropped off this report
• Saudi Arabia reported an increase of cases, but no new recoveries and it climbed up to take the 9th place in this ranking

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Mexico and USA reported a large number of recoveries

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Russia reported a large number of tests overnight and it climbed up to the 5th spot
• Belgium also performed many tests overnight and displaced the USA on the 9th spot

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Spain continues on the top with a large test investment overnight
• Portugal reported a large test operation overnight, and took the 2nd spot
• Belgium and Russia also reported a large number of new tests

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Kazakhstan and Russia swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Italy and UK swapped places; Sweden and Netherlands swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• It’s good to see low new cases coming from all these countries, but specially from Germany and Italy as they have a large caseload already

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported increases of more than 9% which is a good sign
• Bangladesh, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Mexico continue to grow their caseload at a high rate
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases) – Cells in YELLOW indicate increases of more than 5%
• Japan has reported another small increase of recoveries per 1M people
• Singapore caseload has increased again (799 new cases overnight; Singapore’s population is around 5.8 million)

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide