Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.
2. A number of countries with populations lower than 10 million were not considered in my reports, I changed that today and lower than minimum population to 4 million to get more countries to be included and provide a more global analysis

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain continues to have the highest caseload per 1M,  but Belgium will probably pass Spain in just a few days
• USA has passed Italy, and it continues at trend upwards

• Belgium still has the highest and there are no signs of flattening

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Panama made it to report now (population less than 5M, previous reports only considered countries 10M and above but now is 4M and above) – Panama has higher caseload per 1M people than all other hotspots. The volume of cases is small and the country is managing the crisis, they implemented lock-down laws on 25th March.
• The situation in Ecuador is chaotic, saw a lot of reports online from different English and Spanish trustworthy media outlets and I would encourage people to do the same. It is terrible what their population is going through, caused most probably by a very ineffective government who has prioritised their economy ahead of their population. They are paying a heavy price now, and I feel so sorry for their people. Lock-down laws are now in place, but they might have been implemented too late and community transmission is high.
• Russia and Saudi Arabia continue on a steep climb up, but significantly lower than Ecuador

• Panama death toll is the highest per 1M population in this group, with Ecuador very close and possibly passing Panama in just a few days
• Brazil continues on a steep upwards trajectory and could catch up with Ecuador by May – The Brazilian government has not treated the crisis with the necessary urgency and the implementation of lock-down laws and social distancing is yet not followed in the whole country.

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

• Argentina’s curve continues to increase slowly

• Argentina and New Zealand continue to have very similar death curves; but NZ seems to be flatten their curve while Argentina’s is still slowly climbing up

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

• All countries trajectories from a case perspective are still all very similar
• Sweden has passed Germany; UK has passed Netherlands

• UK has the highest deaths per 1M
• Netherlands seems to be flattening the curve; Sweden is still in a steep climb trajectory, and might pass Netherlands by mid May

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

• UK – at current trend UK could be just under 250,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could pass 1,600,000 cases by 15th May

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 320,000 by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 110 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could still be around 280 by 15th May

• UK – at current trend could be just around 33,000 by 15th May

• USA – at the current trent, deaths could exceed of 100,000 by 15th May

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Singapore and France swapped places

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Ecuador climbed 2 places, the COVID-19 crisis is hurting their people badly
• Singapore climbed 1 place too, as it keeps increasing its caseload without increasing recoveries

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• South Africa and Finland reported a large number of recoveries

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Portugal dropped to the 4th position (from the 2nd) due to reporting no additional tests; Kuwait and Israel keep reporting additional tests
• Italy and Spain conducting large tests operations to control the spread

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Philippines and Morocco swapped places

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Ireland and Sweden performed a large number of tests overnight

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Saudi Arabia and UAE (United Arab Emirates) swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Sweden and Algeria swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• It’s good to see low new cases coming from all these countries, but specially from France as they have a large caseload already

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported increases of more than 10% which is a good sign
• Colombia reported a large number of new cases overnight
• Bangladesh, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India and Mexico continue to grow their caseload at a high rate (they’ve been in this report last few days)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases) – Cells in YELLOW indicate increases of more than 5%
• Japan has reported another small increase of recoveries per 1M people

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide