Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland has passed Spain as the country with the highest caseload per 1M population; Belgium’s trajectory could see them passing Spain in May
• US continues on a climbing up, at current pace it may pass Spain in late May
• Singapore is in an upwards trajectory, almost exponential; Singapore will pass Italy in just about a week

• Belgium still has the highest and there are no signs of flattening
• UK reported a large number of deaths to correct a reporting issue, it has now passed Italy on the number of deaths per 1M population (no signs of flattening yet)

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Belarus continues on a very steep climb; with Peru and Kuwait following (Russia and Kuwait show similar curves, but Russia’s curve seems to be flattening)

• Peru is on a very steep climb, closely followed by Brazil

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

• Argentina’s curve continues to increase slowly

• New Zealand has flattened their curve; Argentina keeps increasing slowly

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

• Germany and Netherlands seem to be flattened their curves
• Sweden has passed Germany; UK has passed Netherlands

• UK corrected the deaths reporting and added deaths caused by COVID-19 but in Age Care facilities (not hospitals) – It has recorded a high peak
• Netherlands seems to be flattening the curve; Sweden is still in a steep climb trajectory, and might pass Netherlands by mid May

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

• UK – at current trend UK could be under 250,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could pass 1,600,000 cases by 15th May

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 320,000 by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 110 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 320 by 15th May (small increase)

• UK – at current trend could be around 35,000 by 15th May (UK reported a large number of deaths on 30th April as it counted deaths in Age Care facilities caused by COVID-19, which were previously not counted)

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could exceed of 90,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• South Africa reported a large number of new cases overnight and dropped off from this ranking, Argentina has taken the spot

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• South Korea and Austria swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• No changes

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Greece reported a large number of recoveries (more than 50% of their recoveries were reported overnight)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Denmark performed a large number of tests overnight and climbed up to the 5th spot
• Spain and Switzerland performed more tests overnight and displaced Germany (off this ranking on the 11th place)

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Philippines and Morocco swapped places
• Argentina is still in the bottom-10 for tests per 1M population

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• France performed a very large testing effort overnight, more than 260,000 cases or a third (1/3) of their total tests were reported overnight
• Denmark performed a large test effort too

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Belgium and UK swapped places
• Sweden and Netherlands swapped places
• Hungary and Algeria swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Colombia reported very low new cases overnight
• Low cases reported by Thailand, Austria, Norway, France, Greece and Switzerland – good sign that these countries might be getting COVID-19 under control

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported increases of more than 9% which is a good sign
• Peru, Bangladesh, Brazil, Kuwait, Belarus, Saudi Arabia and Mexico continue to grow their caseload at a high rate (they’ve been in this report last few days)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases) – Cells in YELLOW indicate increases of more than 5%
• Japan reported another significant increase of recoveries

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• Peru swapped places with Brazil
• Kuwait climbed up to the 6th spot (previously on the 10th)
• Colombia dropped off from this report as it reported a significant decrease of new cases yesterday and again today
• India also dropped off from this report as it reported lower case increases yesterday and today
• Kazakhstan and Pakistan climbed up to get the 9th and 10th spots left behind by Colombia and India

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide