Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland has passed Spain as the country with the highest caseload per 1M population
• Spain has the second highest caseload per 1M, but its curve seems to be flattening ; Belgium could pass Spain in a few days
• Switzerland has flattened the curve
• Singapore is in an upwards trajectory, almost exponential

• Belgium still has the highest and there are no signs of flattening
• Ireland, UK and France are in a very similar trajectory

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• This report highlights the countries where the highest caseload increase has been recorded for the last 3 days
• Belarus is in a very steep climb
• Peru is also on a steep climb, but at a lower pace than Belarus
• Kuwait and Russia show next in the graph, with similar curves
• India has had a few days of significant increases but it is still in a better trajectory that China

• Peru is on a very steep climb, followed by Brazil

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

• Argentina’s curve continues to increase slowly

• Argentina and New Zealand continue to have very similar death curves; but NZ seems to be flatten their curve while Argentina’s is still slowly climbing up

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

• All countries trajectories from a case perspective are still all very similar; but Germany and Netherlands seem to be flattened their curves
• Sweden has passed Germany; UK has passed Netherlands

• UK has the highest deaths per 1M
• Netherlands seems to be flattening the curve; Sweden is still in a steep climb trajectory, and might pass Netherlands by mid May

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

• UK – at current trend UK could be under 250,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could pass 1,600,000 cases by 15th May

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 320,000 by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 110 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be just under 350 by 15th May (small increase)

• UK – at current trend could be around 35,000 by 15th May (UK reported a large number of deaths last night as it counted deaths in Age Care facilities caused by COVID-19, which were previously not counted)

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could exceed of 100,000 by 15th May

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Thailand and Bangladesh swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• UK and Portugal swapped places

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Austria and South Korea swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• No changes

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Ireland and Mexico reported large numbers of recoveries and took the first two places in this ranking

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Israel and Kuwait swapped places
• Italy performed a significant number of tests and climbed to the fifth position
• Ireland also performed a large test effort overnight and it is now on the seventh spot
• Germany and Spain continue to invest heavily in testing

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Egypt increased its caseload but it did not report any new cases
• Philippines performed almost 10,000 cases overnight and improved their test to 1M population ration
• Argentina is still in the bottom-10 for tests per 1M population

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• UAE and Israel reported a large number of tests per 1M population overnight
• Germany performed almost 500,000 tests overnight !! wow !!
• Singapore is conducting lots of tests too, to control the spread there

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Kazakhstan and UAE swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• UK took the top spot because it reported a large number of deaths that had not been reported previously by mistake (COVID-19 deaths that occur on Age Care facilities, not in hospitals)
• Sweden climbed up another place, which is not good news for Sweden’s approach to deal with COVID-19

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• France reported 509 cases and dropped to the 6th spot
• Austria reported very low new cases and climbed up to the 4th spot
• Low cases reported by Greece, Israel and Portugal – good sign that these countries might be getting COVID-19 under control

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported increases of more than 10% which is a good sign
• Bangladesh, Brazil, Peru, Kuwait, Belarus, Saudi Arabia and Mexico continue to grow their caseload at a high rate (they’ve been in this report last few days)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases)

• These are the countries who have been battling with COVID-19 the longest (counted only from their day “1”, when they passed 100 cases) – Cells in YELLOW indicate increases of more than 5%
• Singapore had a significant increase of recoveries per 1M population

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• This is a new ranking, showing the countries where the caseload is growing more last 3 days – Bangladesh, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and India have large populations, the spread of COVID-19

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide