Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland has the highest caseload per 1M people
• Belgium might pass Spain as the 2nd highest caseload in May
• US continues on a climbing up, at current pace it may pass Spain in late May
• Singapore curve seems to be flattening but it continues to go up, it might pass Italy in about a week

• Belgium still has the highest (no signs of flattening)
• UK has passed Italy on the number of deaths per 1M population

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Belarus continues on a very steep climb; with Peru, Kuwait and Russia following – no sings of flattening

• Peru, Brazil and Mexico are on steep climb

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

• Argentina’s curve continues to increase

• New Zealand has flattened their curve; Argentina and Australia keep increasing slowly

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

• Germany and Netherlands are flattening their curves
• Sweden has passed Germany; UK has passed Netherlands; Sweden and UK keep increasing their caseload

• UK has the highest deaths per 1M in the group
• Sweden will pass the Netherlands in just a few days

 

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

• UK – at current trend UK could be under 250,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could pass 1,600,000 cases by 15th May

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 320,000 by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 100 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 320 by 15th May (small increase)

• UK – at current trend could exceed of 40,000 by 15th May (UK reported a large number of deaths on 30th April as it counted deaths in Age Care facilities caused by COVID-19, which were previously not counted)

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could exceed of 100,000 by 15th May

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Philippines and Pakistan swapped places
• Argentina reported a few new cases and dropped off this report; South Africa took its place

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Italy and Switzerland swapped places; UK and France swapped places

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Switzerland and Iran swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Philippines and Ukraine swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• No significant increase of recoveries
• Japan and Turkey showing large recovery numbers several days in a row

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Spain almost performed 75,000 new tests overnight and climbed up to the 7th place
• Switzerland and Ireland swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes
• Argentina is still in the bottom-10 for tests per 1M population

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• UAE almost perform enough new tests for 1% of their total population (they have tested already more than 10% of their population)
• France , Denmark, Australia, Spain, Russia, Portugal and Belgium have been performing large tests efforts every day for a few days

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Kazakhstan increased its caseload but did not report any new deaths and climbed up to the 3rd spot, displacing Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
• Chile and Israel swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• France has reported very low new cases and this is great news

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Mexico and Colombia reported more than 10% increase of caseloads overnight – Both countries have made this report for a few days
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Singapore has increased its caseload more than 5% overnight (almost 1,000 new cases overnight)

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• Ukraine showed a large number of cases overnight and it now made it into this ranking, displacing South Arabia (11th place)
• All other countries were already in the Hotspots report yesterday

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide