COVID-19 Graphs 03MAY2020


  1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.


Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Ireland has the highest caseload per 1M people
  • Spain has flattened the curve, and Belgium seems to have been flattened the curve too
  • US continues on a climbing up, at current pace it may pass Spain in late May
  • Singapore curve is climbing up, and it might pass Italy in just few days

  • Belgium still has the highest
  • UK has passed Italy on the number of deaths per 1M population

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

  • Belarus continues on a very steep climb
  • Peru, Kuwait and Russia following – no sings of flattening

  • Peru and Brazil continue to be on steep climbs

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

  • Argentina’s curve continues to increase

  • New Zealand and Australia have flattened their curves
  • Argentina keep increasing

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

  • Germany and Netherlands are flattening their curves
  • Sweden has passed Germany; and it may pass Netherlands in a few days
  • UK has passed Netherlands; Sweden and UK keep increasing their caseload

  • UK has the highest deaths per 1M in the group by far
  • Sweden will pass the Netherlands in just a few days and take the 2nd spot


COVID-19 Cases


  • World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

  • Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

  • UK – at current trend UK could be under 250,000 cases by 15th May

  • USA – at current trend could be just  under 1,600,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)


COVID-19 Deaths


  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 320,000 by 15th May

  • Australia – at current trend, could still be around 100 by 15th May

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 320 by 15th May (small increase)

  • UK – at current trend could reach 40,000 by 15th May

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could exceed of 100,000 by 15th May


Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • China and Egypt swapped places
  • Argentina took back the 10th spot displacing South Africa (11th place)

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Ireland and Belgium swapped places
  • USA case increase has push the country up to the 4th place worldwide, displacing Italy and Switzerland

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Austria and South Korea swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Singapore and Ecuador swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • No significant increase of recoveries

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Ireland reported almost 170,000 new tests conducted overnight and climbed to the 7th spot, displacing Spain
  • Switzerland and Norway swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Mexico and India swapped places
  • Argentina performed a larger number of tests overnight, and dropped off from this ranking – Japan took the 10th place from Argentina (Argentina is in the 11th place)

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Ireland and Israel performed large tests operations overnight
  • Denmark, Russia, Portugal, Belarus and Italy have been performing large tests efforts every day for a few days

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Saudi Arabia and Kuwait swapped places
  • Chile and Australia swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • Netherlands and Sweden swapped places; UK almost reaching Belgium

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Australia reported very low new cases, while conducting significant testing across all states – Well done OZ !!!
  • It’s great to see low numbers of new cases from all countries, but specially from the ones that have been battling with COVID-19 for some time. Germany, France and Iran has reported very low new cases

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • No country has reported case increases higher than 8% which is great
  • Russia, Bangladesh, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Peru caseloads have been increasing consistently around 5-6% for many days
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Singapore has increased its recoveries by more than 5% overnight, it is great news as Singapore caseload has been increasing consistently too

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

  • Chile and India have been added to the Hotspots list as their caseload increased significantly 3 days in a row
  • Mexico and Ukraine dropped off from this ranking as they had low case increases overnight


Data Source Links


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