Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland has the highest caseload per 1M people
• Spain has flattened the curve, and Belgium seems to have been flattened the curve too
• US continues on a climbing up, at current pace it may pass Spain in late May
• Singapore curve is climbing up, and it might pass Italy in just few days

• Belgium still has the highest
• UK has passed Italy on the number of deaths per 1M population

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Belarus continues on a very steep climb
• Peru, Kuwait and Russia following – no sings of flattening

• Peru and Brazil continue to be on steep climbs

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

• Argentina’s curve continues to increase

• New Zealand and Australia have flattened their curves
• Argentina keep increasing

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

• Germany and Netherlands are flattening their curves
• Sweden has passed Germany; and it may pass Netherlands in a few days
• UK has passed Netherlands; Sweden and UK keep increasing their caseload

• UK has the highest deaths per 1M in the group by far
• Sweden will pass the Netherlands in just a few days and take the 2nd spot

 

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

• UK – at current trend UK could be under 250,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could be just  under 1,600,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 320,000 by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 100 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 320 by 15th May (small increase)

• UK – at current trend could reach 40,000 by 15th May

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could exceed of 100,000 by 15th May

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• China and Egypt swapped places
• Argentina took back the 10th spot displacing South Africa (11th place)

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Ireland and Belgium swapped places
• USA case increase has push the country up to the 4th place worldwide, displacing Italy and Switzerland

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Austria and South Korea swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Singapore and Ecuador swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• No significant increase of recoveries

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Ireland reported almost 170,000 new tests conducted overnight and climbed to the 7th spot, displacing Spain
• Switzerland and Norway swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Mexico and India swapped places
• Argentina performed a larger number of tests overnight, and dropped off from this ranking – Japan took the 10th place from Argentina (Argentina is in the 11th place)

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Ireland and Israel performed large tests operations overnight
• Denmark, Russia, Portugal, Belarus and Italy have been performing large tests efforts every day for a few days

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait swapped places
• Chile and Australia swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Netherlands and Sweden swapped places; UK almost reaching Belgium

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Australia reported very low new cases, while conducting significant testing across all states – Well done OZ !!!
• It’s great to see low numbers of new cases from all countries, but specially from the ones that have been battling with COVID-19 for some time. Germany, France and Iran has reported very low new cases

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country has reported case increases higher than 8% which is great
• Russia, Bangladesh, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Peru caseloads have been increasing consistently around 5-6% for many days
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Singapore has increased its recoveries by more than 5% overnight, it is great news as Singapore caseload has been increasing consistently too

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• Chile and India have been added to the Hotspots list as their caseload increased significantly 3 days in a row
• Mexico and Ukraine dropped off from this ranking as they had low case increases overnight

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide