COVID-19 Graphs 04MAY2020


  1. USA has not been reporting their full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.


Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they passed the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Ireland, Spain and Belgium continue to have the highest caseload per 1M; but their curves are flattening
  • USA continues on a steep climb, it has passed Switzerland and at the current trend it might pass Spain and Ireland before the end of May
  • Singapore curve is climbing up, and it might pass Italy in just few days

  • Belgium still has the highest
  • UK has passed Italy on the number of deaths per 1M population

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

  • Peru, Chile, Russia and Kuwait continue on a steep climb on new cases

  • Peru has about three times (3x) the number of deaths per 1M than Chile

Comparing: Argentina, Australia and New Zealand (+China as reference)

  • Argentina’s curve continues to increase

  • Argentina continues to increase

Comparing: Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK (+China as reference)

  • Germany and Netherlands are flattening their curves
  • Sweden has passed Germany; and it may pass Netherlands in a few days

  • UK has the highest deaths per 1M in the group by far
  • Sweden will pass the Netherlands in just a few days and take the 2nd spot


COVID-19 Cases


  • World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

  • Argentina – at current trend could be around 6,500 cases by 15th May

  • UK – at current trend UK could be under 250,000 cases by 15th May

  • USA – at current trend could be just  under 1,600,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)


COVID-19 Deaths


  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be around 320,000 by 15th May

  • Australia – at current trend, could still be around 100 by 15th May

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 330 by 15th May (small increase)

  • UK – at current trend could reach 45,000 by 15th May (small increase)

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could exceed of 100,000 by 15th May


Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.


Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Afghanistan exceeded 2,500 cases overnight and made this report, taking the 7th spot and displacing Philippines, Pakistan and Algeria (Argentina dropped off from this ranking, and it is in 11th place)

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes
  • There are three tiers in this report:
    • 1) Spain with more than 5,000 cases per 1M;
    • 2) Ireland and Belgium with around 4,300 cases per 1M;
    • 3) USA, Italy and Switzerland with around 3,500 cases per 1M

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • South Korea and Austria swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Norway has reported only a few recoveries; it is possible they are not reporting new recoveries to the WHO
  • UK and Netherlands continue to not report recoveries to the WHO
  • Bangladesh reported a large number of recoveries and dropped down in this ranking to the 7th position
  • Panama also reported an improvement on the number of recoveries and swapped places with Ecuador
  • Afghanistan exceeded the 2,500 cases and made this report on the 9th spot; Philippines dropped off from this report

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Large number of recoveries reported by Bangladesh

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • UAE continues at the top of most tests performed for 1M people
  • Kuwait and Israel swapped places for the 2nd and 3rd
  • Spain reported an increase of testing done overnight and moved up to the 4th spot; Belgium also increase the number of tests overnight and took the 7th place in this ranking

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Afghanistan passed the 2,500 cases and made this report on the 2nd place (not enough testing done)
  • Pakistan increase testing and dropped to the 8th spot

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Large number of tests conducted by Belgium and Spain
  • Kuwait,, Denmark, Russia, Belarus and Australia have been performing large tests efforts every day for a few days

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Oman passed 2,500 cases and made it into this report
  • Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes
  • There are three tiers in this ranking as well:
    • 1) Belgium, UK and France with around 15% and up
    • 2) Italy, Netherlands and Sweden with 12%-14%
    • 3) Other countries with around 11% and under

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Australia reported 18 new cases and dropped to the 9th spot

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • No country reported more than 9% caseload increase
  • Afghanistan passed the 2,500 cases and made it into these reports
  • Russia, Peru, Kuwait, Bangladesh, Ecuador, India and South Africa reported increases of around 7% (their caseloads have been increasing for many days)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Japan reported a significant increase of their recoveries overnight

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

  • Afghanistan passed 2,500 cases and made it into these reports
  • Colombia and South Africa also reported increases 3 days in a row, and made it into this report


Data Source Links


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