Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting the full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain and Belgium continue to have the highest caseload per 1M; but their curves are flattening
• USA continues on a steep climb, at the current trend it could pass Spain and Belgium before the end of May

• Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M population, and its curve is flattening

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Ecuador, Peru and Chile continue to climb up
• Russia will probably pass Chile in the next few days

• Ecuador has more than twice (2x) the deaths per 1M than Peru
• Brazil follows Peru

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be under 6,500 cases by 15th May (small reduction)

• UK – at current trend UK could be under 250,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could be around 1,500,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be under 320,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 100 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 340 by 15th May (small increase)

• UK – at current trend could be under 45,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be around 100,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

The threshold for countries to be included in these ranking reports was updated to reduce the number of countries considered, and still capture more 80% of the world population. Minimum population was increased to 10 million; and minimum number of cases to 4,500.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• China and Bangladesh swapped places; Algeria and Argentina swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Spain and Mexico swapped places; Turkey and Chile swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Sweden reported more than 3,000 new recoveries overnight and moved to the 10th place ; all other countries climbed up one place but kept the same rankings are previously

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Large number of recoveries reported by Sweden, taking the top ranking

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Algeria passed the 4,500 overnight and took the 1st place displacing the other countries

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Portugal, Belgium, Russia and UK continue to invest heavily in testing
• USA performed more than 250,000 tests overnight and climbed up to the 5th spot

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Algeria passed the 4,500 cases overnight, and made it to the 8th position in this report displacing Mexico and Indonesia down

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• With the exception of Netherlands, all these countries were in the previous report with low new cases reported
• Netherlands reported only 199 new cases, and displaced Portugal from this report (Portugal reported 242 new cases overnight, and it’s in the 12th spot)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported more than 9% caseload increase
• All countries except Brazil and Egypt were previously in this list
• Brazil and Egypt has large caseload increases, and both countries are not doing enough testing
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Japan again reported a significant increase of their recoveries overnight

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• Brazil has had large caseload increases three days in a row, and therefore made this report as a new Hotspot
• All other countries were already in the Hotspot report previously

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide