Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting the full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain and Belgium continue to have the highest caseload per 1M; Belgium is probably going to pass Spain in a few days
• USA continues on a steep climb, at the current trend it could pass Spain and Belgium before the end of May

• Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M population, and its curve is flattening

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Peru, Chile and Russia continue to climb straight up; Russia will probably pass Chile in a few days

• Peru and Brazil have more than twice the deaths per 1M than other countries

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be just above 6,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)

• UK – at current trend UK could be around 240,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could be around 1,500,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be under 320,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 100 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 350 by 15th May (small increase)

• UK – at current trend could just above 40,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be just below 100,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Argentina and Algeria swapped places (both countries have similar population size, and caseloads but Argentina has little over half of the number of deaths)

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Germany and Iran swapped places; Mexico and Spain Swapped places
• The Czech Republic reported a large number of recoveries and displaced Chile taking the 10th spot

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Bangladesh and Russia swapped places; Philippines and Ukraine swapped places
• Saudi Arabia and Indonesia reported  new recoveries, and moved down to the 9th and 10th spots – Sweden did not report any new recoveries and moved up to the 8th spot

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Mexico reported a large number of recoveries overnight
• Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Indonesia, Canada and Peru reported significant recoveries last night (Turkey, Morocco, India and Czech Republic have been reported significant recoveries previously)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Russia and Germany swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Sweden performed a large test exercise overnight
• Czech Republic, Peru and Chile reported a large number of tests performed overnight (UK, Belgium, Russia, Italy, USA and Australia have been performing many tests overnight for a few days)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Malaysia and Portugal reported very low new cases overnight (the other countries have been reporting low new cases for a few days)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported more than 8% caseload increase
• Peru and Pakistan reported many new cases overnight (the other countries have been reported many new cases overnight for a few days)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• No changes

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• Mexico has been reporting large numbers of new cases for 3 days in a row, and made the Hotspot ranking on the 4th spot
• All the other countries were in the Hotspots previously (Ecuador dropped off after reporting no new cases overnight – it could be a timing issue as Ecuador has been in the Hotspots list for a while, and their caseload is increasing daily)

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide