Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting the full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain and Belgium continue to have the highest caseload per 1M; Belgium could pass Spain in just a few days
• Sweden continues to increase their caseload, no signs of flattening
• UK could pass Italy in a few days
• USA could pass Spain and Belgium before the end of May

• Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M population, and its curve is flattening
• Sweden has passed Netherlands (already more than three times the number of deaths of Germany)

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Peru, Russia and Chile continue to climb straight up

• Peru and Brazil have more than twice the deaths per 1M than other countries
• Mexico is increasing the number of deaths significantly (there are reports in the media that the number of deaths in Mexico D.F. have not been totally reported yet)

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 9,000 cases by 31st May

• UK – at current trend UK could be around 320,000 cases by 31st May

• USA – at current trend could be around 1,800,000 cases by 31st May

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 400,000 by 31st May

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 105 by 31st May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 450 by 31st May

• UK – at current trend could be around 50,000 by 31st May

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be just below 120,000 by 31st May

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Pakistan and Algeria had large increases of cases, and dropped to the 10th and 9th spots ; Japan and Argentina climbed up to the 7th and 8th

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Philippines and Bangladesh swapped places; Sweden and Ukraine swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• South Africa and Mexico reported large increases of recoveries (more than 8% of their caseload)
• Also, Romania, Russia and Bangladesh reported significant increases and made this ranking (all other countries were in this report previously)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Spain performed a large number of new tests and climbed up to the top, displacing Portugal and Belgium (Spain used to be in the 3rd spot)
• Canada and Czech Republic (Czechia) swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Egypt and Mexico swapped places

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Large numbers of tests were performed by Spain (more than half a million tests reported overnight); all other countries in this list have been performing many tests overnight for a few days

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Portugal reported very low new cases overnight (all the other countries have been reporting low new cases for a few days)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported large case increases; Pakistan was the largest increase with about 8% (all others under 7%)
• Dominnican Republic and Peru had large numbers of new cases overnight (all other countries were reported in this ranking previously)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Singapore has reported a large increase of recoveries (almost 10% increase of recoveries in Singapore) – This is great news as Singapore was dealing with a 2nd wave of COVID-19

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• South Africa reported large case number increases three days in a row, and made the list of Hotspots (all other countries have been in this list for a few days)

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide