COVID-19 Graphs 11MAY2020

Notes:

  1. USA has not been reporting the full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Ireland, Spain and Belgium continue to have the highest caseload per 1M; Belgium could pass Ireland and Spain in just a few days
  • UK could pass Italy tomorrow
  • USA could pass Ireland, Spain and Belgium before the end of May
  • Singapore is in an upwards trajectory and could pass USA in a few days

  • Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M population, and its curve is flattening

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

  • Russia passed Chile and continues in a steep upwards climb

  • Brazil’s death toll continues to increase significantly
  • Mexico is increasing the number of deaths significantly (there are reports in the media that the number of deaths in Mexico D.F. have not been totally reported yet)
  • Russia is in an upwards trend, and could pass Chile in a few days

COVID-19 Cases

 

  • World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May

  • Argentina – at current trend could be around 9,000 cases by 31st May

  • UK – at current trend UK could be around 320,000 cases by 31st May

  • USA – at current trend could be around 1,800,000 cases by 31st May

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 400,000 by 31st May

  • Australia – at current trend, could still be around 105 by 31st May

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be around 450 by 31st May

  • UK – at current trend could be around 50,000 by 31st May

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 120,000 by 31st May

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Malaysia and Ireland swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Ecuador and Singapore swapped places
  • USA increased caseload at a higher rate than recoveries, and climbed 2 positions in this ranking to take the 6th spot (displaced Philippines and Bangladesh)
  • Sweden and Indonesia swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Japan and Mexico shows increases of recoveries (almost 5% each)
  • Japan, India, Turkey and Algeria are new to this ranking (all other countries were in this report previously)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Russia and Norway swapped places (large test increase by Russia)

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Brazil and Japan swapped places

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Large numbers of tests were performed by USA and Kazakhstan, and they are included in this ranking (all other countries in this list have been performing many tests overnight for a few days) — USA performed almost 500,000 tests overnight

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Chile and UAE swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • Ecuador reported a large number of deaths and made the 10th spot in this ranking, and displaced Indonesia to the 11th position

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • All of these countries have been reporting low new cases for a few days (just changes of positions in the ranking)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • India has reported a large increase (almost 7%)
  • Chile and Saudi Arabia reported large new case volumes and made this ranking
  • All other countries were reported in this ranking previously
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Japan reported a significant increase of recoveries — Japan has a population of 126 million, and a total of 15,663 cases with 607 deaths; they increased their recoveries by 760 overnight to 5,906 recovered cases
  • Singapore has reported a large increase of recoveries — Singapore has a population of 5.85 million, and a total of 23,336 cases with 3 deaths; they increased their recoveries by 425 to 2,721 recovered cases

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

  • Saudi Arabia reported large new case volumes three days in a row, and made the 10th position in this report (displacing Peru from this ranking)
  • All other countries were already in the Hotspots list (report only shows changes of positions between them)

 

Data Source Links

 

2 Replies to “COVID-19 Graphs 11MAY2020”

  1. Of the countries that are showing good recoveries do we know anymore as to why? Are they treating the patient’s any differently? Drugs or ventilators etc?

    1. Hi Sue: apparently the big difference is on how early you detect that people are infected, that makes a huge difference as then patients with treatment and monitoring get out of it. Countries with high levels of restrictions and/or high levels of testing are the ones doing best. For example, Germany has lots of testing done, therefore they’ve detected a large percentage of their population is infected (this virus is highly contagious) but they death rate is very slow because they find infections very early in the game, they monitor and treat them, urgent cases get proper attention, and they are able to recover most people. The countries with low rates of test, with high community transmission (no or poor lock-downs), they face the challenge of detecting infections when they are too advance, or and later that they detect so many infections their health system cannot cope and they cannot treat urgent cases and recover them. Italy, Spain and UK did not implement lock-downs early enough and they did not do enough testing; Italy and Spain are doing huge testing now and they are bringing the virus under control, but their health systems were too stressed to handle the volume of infections and that’s why their death rate is so high (not enough PPE, health staff infected, not enough ICU beds, not enough ventilators, etc). UK started the lock-down too late, and it is still not doing enough testing, community transmission took the virus to the Age Care places, and the volume of infections stressed the NHA. Cases are lowering in the UK but deaths still occur. More testing is needed there to pin-point the focus areas, isolate them, treat them, recover infections early, give the NHA a break, and focus on the aging population to stop them from dying to the virus. Argentina implemented a very tough lock-down and they keep extending it to avoid community transmission, they do not have money for tests (happens a lot to 3rd world countries) and they needed to have their health system ready for the virus response, they are now and they are making their own tests in Argentina, so they are starting to consider slowly opening up knowing that will cause cases, but hoping they can respond to them quickly and efficiently (ICU beds, respirators, PPE for health staff, etc). Australia and NZ implemented a combo of lock-down and heavy testing, we are still doing heavy testing in OZ, and we can identify cases at a very early stage and handle them (isolate + treat) so that they recover with proper medical assistance if needed. China did the same, but even more extreme lock-down rules than in OZ, and that’s how they control the spread of the virus and minimise deaths. There is no “drug” to treat the virus effectively (a few promising ones like Remdesivir, but too early to tell if really effective) and no vaccine to block the virus yet (Italy seems to have a vaccine very advance in human testing showing good results, let’s keep the fingers crossed!); until we have an effective treatment or vaccine, there is no other way than physical-distancing, heavy hygiene, and test+test+test.

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