Notes:

1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
   

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland, Spain and Belgium curves are flattening
• Singapore continues in an upwards trajectory, passed USA

• Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M, and its curve is flattening
• UK continues to climb, at present trend could pass Spain in May

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Russia and Chiule continue in a steep climb

• Mexico continues to increase the number of deaths significantly
• Russia is in an upwards trend, and could pass Chile in a few days

Brightspots Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the places that have been able to “best” handle the COVID-19 crisis. To qualify as “best” is very subjective, so I must define what I have used to select these as “best”:

1) low number of cases per 1M population (less than 500);
2) low number of active cases (or high number of recoveries);
3) low number of deaths per case volume (3% or less);
4) enough testing performed (more than 2,500 per 1M pop);
5) more than 7 wks from day “1” (day passed 100 cases in total)

• Good to see Australia and New Zealand in the list, however as you can see we have done well but not as well as other countries
• Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand have done better than China

• Australia has done really well here, better than New Zealand, Slovakia and South Korea; but again not the best in the group
• Vietnam reported 0 deaths from COVID-19, and most of their cases have already been recovered; Taiwan, Thailand and Costa Rica did better than China

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May (small increase)

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May

• Argentina – at current trend could be around 12,000 cases by 31st May – Argentina reported a large new case volume overnight with community transmission spreading in shanty towns and Aged Care facilities around Buenos Aires

• UK – at current trend UK could be around 310,000 cases by 31st May (small reduction)

• USA – at current trend could be around 1,800,000 cases by 31st May

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 380,000 by 31st May (small reduction)

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 105 by 31st May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 450 by 31st May (small increase)

• UK – at current trend could be around 47,000 by 31st May (small reduction)

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 110,000 by 31st May (small reduction)

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Ghana passed the 4,500 cases and made the report, displacing the other countries; no other changes

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Japan reported a significant increase of recoveries (more than 14% of their caseload)
• Morocco, Czechia (Czech Republic) and Israel made this report ; all other countries were in this report previously

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Afghanistan passed the 4,500 cases and made the report in the 2nd position, displacing all other countries; no other changes

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• No signficant increase of tests reported; Israel, Norway and Chile made this report (all other countries were in the report yesterday)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Ghana passed 4,500 cases and made this report in the 2nd position displacing other countries
• UAE and Chile swapped places; Israel reported a large number of deaths overnight and dropped to the 11th spot

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Italy and Portugal reported low new case increases and made this report; all of these countries have been reporting low new cases for a few days

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Large increases reported by Colombia, Ghana and Argentina (more than 8% all of these); Afghanistan passed 4,500 cases and made this report on the 5th position
• All other countries were reported in this ranking previously
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Japan reported a significant increase of recoveries

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• Afghanistan passed the 4,500 cases and made this report on the 1st spot
• All other countries were already in the Hotspots list (report only shows changes of positions between them)

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

• Vietnam has reported 0 deaths from COVID-19 and almost all caseload recovered
• Costa Rica has reported only 801 cases with 7 deaths; however they have not run enough tests (e.g. NZ has similar population size to Costa Rica, and NZ has performed more than 10x the number of tests than Costa Rica)

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide