COVID-19 Graphs 13MAY2020

Notes:

  1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Ireland, Spain and Belgium curves are flattening
  • Singapore continues in an upwards trajectory, no signs of flattening

  • Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M, and its curve is flattening
  • UK’s curve seems to be flattenning too

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

  • UAE and Ghana had large new cases 3 days in a row and made the Hotspots list
  • UAE has a case volumes higher than all other countries in this group and growing
  • Russia and Chile continue in a steep climb

++

  • Mexico continues to increase the number of deaths significantly; reports the number of deaths in their capital city is not fully reported
  • UAE and Ghana made the Hotspot list; UAE is 2nd with their number of deaths

Brightspots Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the places that have been able to “best” handle the COVID-19 crisis. To qualify as “best” is very subjective, so I must define what I have used to select these as “best”:

1) low number of cases per 1M population (less than 500);
2) low number of active cases (or high number of recoveries);
3) low number of deaths per case volume (3% or less);
4) enough testing performed (more than 2,500 per 1M pop);
5) more than 7 wks from day “1” (day passed 100 cases in total)

  • Jordan took Uruguay’s place today

  • Jordan has also done very well with the number of deaths (lower thna China)

COVID-19 Cases

 

  • World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May (no change)

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May (no change)

  • Argentina – at current trend could be around 12,000 cases by 31st May (no change)

  • UK – at current trend UK could be around 310,000 cases by 31st May (no change)

  • USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May (small reduction)

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 380,000 by 31st May (no change)

  • Australia – at current trend, could still be around 105 by 31st May (no change)

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 450 by 31st May (no change)

  • UK – at current trend could be around 45,000 by 31st May (small reduction)

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 110,000 by 31st May (no change)

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Nigeria passed the 4,500 cases and made this report; India fell to the 3rd spot (no other changes)

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • No changes

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Sweden climbed up to the 7th spot (used to be 10th) as it has not increased recoveries significantly

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Finland, Dominican Republic, Romania, Nigeria and Singapore made this list with high recoveries reported; all other countries were in this report previously

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Nigeria passed 4,500 cases and made this report with the lowest number of tests in the world (no other changes)

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • UAE, Ireland, Portugal, Sweden, Brazil and Italy increase testing significantly overnight; all other countries were in the report yesterday

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Argentina, Malaysia, Finland and Germany reported very low new cases overnight and made this report; all other countries were there yesterday

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Ghana’s caseload keeps increasing at a high pace
  • Pakistan, Chile and Nigeria reported large volumes of new cases overnight; all other countries were reported in this ranking previously
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

  • Ghana and UAE are now included in the Hotspots list as they have increased their caseload significantly 3 days in a row (or more); all other countries were already in the Hotspots list

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

  • Jordan made this group and displaced Uruguay (on the 11th spot now)

 

Data Source Links

 

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