Notes:

1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
   

 

Interesting Facts

• The Australian media (including ABC) have been reporting that Russia has passed all countries except the USA in the number of infections. This is INCORRECT and I have reported that back to our ABC via twitter, but I got no reply from anyone there. Russia is 3rd, Spain is still in the 2nd place with almost 30,000 more cases than Russia. However, if Russia does not put the breaks to the infection there, they will pass Spain and take the 2nd spot in just 2-3 days
• Europe as a block (all countries and territories, except the UK of course due to Brexit) has the same number of cases than the USA (around 1.4 million cases). Europe has about 124,000 deaths or almost 50% more deaths than the USA; however Europe has about 700,000 recoveries or more than twice (2x) the number of recoveries in the USA
• Europe, UK and USA combined populations amount to 1.078 billion people or little under 15% of the world’s population; however Europe, UK and USA combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) amounts to almost $40 trillion or almost 50% of the world’s GDP — Now in COVID-19 terms: Europe, UK and USA combined have 3.1 million cases or more than 70% of the world’s cases; and 242,000 deaths or more than 80% of the world’s deaths

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland, Spain and Belgium curves are flattening; Belgium still climbing a little bit and might pass Spain soon
• Singapore continues in an upwards trajectory, no signs of flattening
• Sweden caseload is increasing in almost an arithmetic trend (straight line growth)

• Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M, and its curve is flattening
• UK’s curve seems to be flattening a bit, but at its present trend might pass Spain before the end of May
• Sweden deaths continue to rise

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Russia and Chile continue in a steep climb; Saudi Arabia climbing too

• Mexico continues to increase the number of deaths significantly
• Russia is increasing and might pass Chile in a few weeks

Brightspots Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the places that have been able to “best” handle the COVID-19 crisis. To qualify as “best” is very subjective, so I must define what I have used to select these as “best”:

1) low number of cases per 1M population (less than 500);
2) low number of active cases (or high number of recoveries);
3) low number of deaths per case volume (3% or less);
4) enough testing performed (more than 2,500 per 1M pop);
5) more than 7 wk from day “1” (day passed 100 cases in total)

• Slovakia will pass Australia; and Malaysia has passed South Korea; Jordan will pass China tomorrow

• Slovakia has passed South Korea and keeps increasing

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

• World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May 

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend could pass 12,000 cases by 31st May 

• UK – at current trend UK could be around 300,000 cases by 31st May 

• USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 380,000 by 31st May 

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 105 by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 450 by 31st May 

• UK – at current trend could be under 45,000 by 31st May 

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 110,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Philippines and Bangladesh swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Singapore and USA swapped places
• Sweden has increased caseload and climbed up to the 9th spot, displacing Portugal to the 10th spot (France dropped off ot the 11th spot)

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Switzerland and South Korea swapped places
• Ireland reported a large number of recoveries and climbed up to the 7th spot

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Ecuador and Portugal swapped places
• Sweden and Bangladesh increased their caseloads but not reported significant increases in recoveries so they climbed to the 6th and 7th spots

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Large number of recoveries reported by Ireland; followed by Mexico and Argentina
• Besides three three countries, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Belarus, Brazil and India reported large recoveries and made this report (Saudi Arabia and Singapore were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Portugal and Israel swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Singapore and Germany reported large test efforts overnight
• Besides them, Australia, Finland and Czechia (Czech Republic) reported many tests and made this report (Denmark, UK, Belarus, Russia and Portugal were in this report yesterday too)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Chile and UAE swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Mexico and Spain swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Ecuador, Austria, Belgium and Italy reported small new case volumes and made this report; all other countries have been there previously

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Chile and Pakistan continue to increase their caseload at more than 7% overnight
• Brazil, Peru and Mexico has large new case volumes and made this report; all other countries were reported in this ranking previously
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries (again, they’ve been reporting large increases of recoveries for many days — they have increased their caseload too but they have not reported many new deaths)

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• Pakistan has reported large case increases 3 days in a row and made the Hotspot list; all other countries were there yesterday too

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

• Only changes of position in the list, but no other changes

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide