COVID-19 Graphs 16MAY2020

Notes:

  1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries

 

Interesting Facts

  • The number of new cases worldwide overnight has passed the 100,000 mark today, as 108,397 new cases were reported in the last 24 hours.
  • Russia will pass Spain in number of cases tomorrow, and will be 2nd only to the USA on total number of COVID-19 cases. However, Russia is 21st worldwide in number of cases to 1M population (Spain is still 1st, and USA is 5th).

  • Argentina has passed Australia in number of cases overnight. However, Argentina’s main science organisation CONICET (similar to the CSIRO in Australia) has created a successful new test for COVID-19 that returns results in just a few minutes and it is highly accurate (2% error on Negative cases only). This test was released on 7th May and it is responsible for the country to be able to locate all the new cases reported by the country, and allowed the health case teams to isolate and control the spread (More details…)
  • The number of deaths in the USA (88,507) is too high for the number of cases reported, which seems to indicate there is a high probability the infection is a lot more spread in the USA. If applying the COVID-19 death rate to the number of deaths in the USA, the number of cases would be more than 2,600,000

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Ireland showed a small increate of cases overnight
  • Spain and Belgium curves are flattening
  • Singapore continues in an upwards trajectory
  • Sweden caseload is increasing in almost an arithmetic trend (straight line growth); at the current trend Sweden could pass Italy by end of May

  • Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M, and its curve is finally flattening
  • All other curves seem to be flattening with the exception of Sweden that continues to climb

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

  • Chile has passed Russia, and it is climbing up at a much higher pace than any other Hotspot country

  • Brazil far exceeds all other countries on number of deaths per 1M in this group, with Mexico following (about half the number of deaths per 1M than Brazil)

Brightspots Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the places that have been able to “best” handle the COVID-19 crisis. To qualify as “best” is very subjective, so I must define what I have used to select these as “best”:

1) low number of cases per 1M population (less than 500);
2) low number of active cases (or high number of recoveries);
3) low number of deaths per case volume (3% or less);
4) enough testing performed (more than 2,500 per 1M pop);
5) more than 7 wk from day “1” (day passed 100 cases in total)

  • Slovakia has flattened the case curve and it is on par with Australia
  • Malaysia has passed South Korea

  • Slovakia has flattened the death curve and it is on par with South Korea
  • Malaysia continues to climb up very slowly and might catch up with Australia

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

  • World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend could reach 15,000 cases by 31st May

  • UK – at current trend UK could be around 300,000 cases by 31st May 

  • USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 375,000 by 31st May 

  • Australia – at current trend, could still be around 105 by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend could be around 41,000 by 31st May

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 110,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Algeria and Afghanistan swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • South Korea and Switzerland swapped places; Finland reported a large number of recoveries and made the 9th spot; Iran reported a few new cases and dropped from this report (to 11th spot)

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Ghana reported a large number of recoveries once again and dropped off from this ranking (currently seating in the 14th spot worldwide for recoveries per caseload) — Ghana used to be in the 4th spot, Afghanistan, Sweden, Bangladesh and Philippines climbed up one spot due to that
  • USA increased its caseload but has not reported significant new recoveries and climbed up to the 8th spot in this ranking (from the 10th)

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Large number of recoveries reported by Ghana and Finland (more than 11% both)
  • Japan and Mexico reported large recoveries too (more than 7%)
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Mexico and Egypt swapped places

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Malaysia reported a large number of tests performed overnight, more than 150,000 tests overnight for a country of about 32 million population
  • Australia continues to invest heavily in testing
  • Malaysia and Canada are new to this ranking (all other countries have been there for a few days)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Oman passed the 4,500 cases and made this report on the 2nd position with very low deaths per caseload; displacing the other countries down one spot

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • Ecuador and Algeria swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Very low new cases reported by France, Germany and Netherlands (all other countries have been in this report for a while)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Large number of new cases reported by Mexico (more than 10%); followed by Brazil and Pakistan (more than 7% both)
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were in the previous version of this report)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries (again)

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

  • Oman and Russia are now part of the Hotspots report – all other countries were in this report yesterday

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

  • No changes except for position changes to this list

 

Data Source Links

 

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