COVID-19 Graphs 17MAY2020

Notes:

  1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries

 

Interesting Facts

  • For the second day in a row, Netherlands and UK have not provided WHO with their Active numbers (people who have contracted the disease and has not yet recovered). They have not been provided the Recovery numbers for a long time now, but with the Active number you could determine the Recovery number, so now  they are NOT even providing the Active. They are the only 2 countries in the whole world who are not being totally transparent with their data … the question is why?
  • One question I have received is what is the impact of COVID-19 to the traditional Flu in Australia. I got these numbers from the Immunisation Coalition website ( https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/news-media/2020-influenza-statistics/ ), and as of 11th May 2020, we have had 20,340 cases of Influenza in Australia.  When considering previous years:

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Ireland, Spain and Belgium curves are flattening
  • Singapore continues in an upwards trajectory; passed USA
  • Sweden caseload is increasing in almost an arithmetic trend

  • All other curves seem to be flattening with the exception of Sweden and the USA that continues to climb; Sweden increases at a higher pace than the USA

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

  • Peru . Chile, Oman and Russia lead this group, followed by Brazil — Peru and Chile are in a very dangerous upwards trend

  • Peru and Brazil far exceed with almost four times (4x) the number of deaths per 1M

Brightspots Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the places that have been able to “best” handle the COVID-19 crisis. To qualify as “best” is very subjective, so I must define what I have used to select these as “best”:

1) low number of cases per 1M population (less than 500);
2) low number of active cases (or high number of recoveries);
3) low number of deaths per case volume (3% or less);
4) enough testing performed (more than 2,500 per 1M pop);
5) more than 7 wk from day “1” (day passed 100 cases in total)

  • Uzbekistan took Slovakia’s place

  • South Korea has the hightest death per 1M in the group

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

  • World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend could reach 15,000 cases by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend UK could be around 300,000 cases by 31st May 

  • USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 375,000 by 31st May 

  • Australia – at current trend, could still be around 105 by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend could be around 41,000 by 31st May 

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 110,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Philippines and Egypt swapped places; Japan and Bangladesh swapped places

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • UK and Switzerland swapped places

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Switzerland and South Korea swapped places (again); Malaysia and Finland swapped places too

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Afghanistan and Portugal swapped places; Indonesia and Russia swapped places too

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Chile, UAE, Ukraine, Belarus and Algeria reported significant recovery numbers and made this report
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Spain reported a large number of tests overnight and climbed to the 3rd spot displacing Portugal, Israel and Belgium down one spot

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Philippines reported new tests overnight and dropped off this report, Japan took the 10th position instead

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Denmark and Spain performed a large number of tests overnight; Spain performed more than 570,000 tests !!
  • Spain, Israel, Kazakhstan and Italy are new to this ranking (all other countries have been there for a few days)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Due to timing of reporting, Australia shows only with only 1 case reported overnight; also Malaysia, Czechia (Czech Republic) and Ireland reported very low new cases (all other countries have been in this report for a while)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Large number of new cases reported by Oman(more than 8%)
  • India, Peru, Egypt and Ecuador reported larger than usual volumes of new cases; countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were in the previous version of this report)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries (again) — Singapore keeps detecting new cases of COVID-19 but they have not had any new death, they are recovering all cases so far

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

  • Peru is the new addition to this group, with large case volume increases for 7 days; all other countries were in this report yesterday

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

  • No changes except for position changes to this list

 

Data Source Links

 

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