Notes:

1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
   
2. Netherlands and UK do not provide details of their recovered and active cases, therefore they are not included in any reports that are considering these

 

Interesting Facts

• At the current pace, Brazil will pass UK to take the forth position in the world for number of cases (total volume of cases); and if continue at the same pace for about a week it could also pass Spain and take the 3rd position (USA 1st and Russia 2nd) — Brazil has not perform enough tests compared with USA (36 tests per 1000 people) and Russia (47 tests per 1000 people), only performed around 735,224 tests or 3 tests per 1000 people. Therefore, it is highly probably Brazil has a much larger number of infections than currently reported
• Update on Sweden:

Sweden has almost twice of the population of its closets neighbors Denmark, Finland and Norway; but it has more than fifty percent (50%) more the cases than Denmark, and twice (2x) the one of Norway and almost three times (3x) the caseload of Finland. Sweden’s caseload per 1M people is 10th in the world and at the present trend it could pass 40,000 cases by 31st May.

However, Sweden death rate is significantly higher than that of its neighbors. Sweden has reported more than four times (4x) the number of deaths than Denmark, and more than seven (7x) the number of deaths of Finland or Norway. Also, the curves for new cases and deaths for Denmark, Finland and Norway have already flatten, while the curves for Sweden continue to climb. At the current pace, Sweden could have around more than 5,000 deaths by 31st May.

For all those who still think COVID-19 is just another flu (just heard it yesterday again, and from a medical doctor, unbelievable!), Sweden 2018-19 Influenza caseload was 13,324 with a total of 505 deaths. At the current trend, COVID-19 in Sweden by 31st May could have more than three times (3x) the total number of Influenza cases of last year, and ten times (10x) the number of deaths; and COVID-19 will just no go away after 31st May so the 2019-20 total case and death numbers will be higher.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland, Spain and Belgium curves are flattening
• Singapore continues in an steep climb trajectory
• USA and Sweden caseload continues to increase (curve not flattening)

• All other curves seem to be flattening with the exception of Sweden and USA

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

• Peru . Chile, Oman and Saudi Arabia lead this group today, followed by Brazil — Peru and Chile continues on a steep climb
• Mexico made this report as it significantly increase case numbers seven days in a row, and it is sharing the sixth (6th) spot in this group with Bangladesh

• Peru and Brazil far exceed with almost four times (4x); Brazil could pass Peru in just a few days
• Mexico made this report today, and it is third (3rd)

Brightspots Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the places that have been able to “best” handle the COVID-19 crisis. To qualify as “best” is very subjective, so I must define what I have used to select these as “best”:

1) low number of cases per 1M population (less than 500);
2) low number of active cases (or high number of recoveries);
3) low number of deaths per case volume (3% or less);
4) enough testing performed (more than 2,500 per 1M pop);
5) more than 7 wk from day “1” (day passed 100 cases in total)

• Uzbekistan, Malaysia and Australia’s caseloads are increasing lightly still, all other countries see to have flatten the curve

• Malaysia’s curve seems to continue to grow very slowly still; all other cuntries have flatten the curve

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

• World – at current trend the world could pass 6,000,000 cases by 31st May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend could reach around 14,000 cases by 31st May 

• UK – at current trend UK could be under 300,000 cases by 31st May 

• USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 375,000 by 31st May 

• Australia – at current trend, could be under 105 by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

• UK – at current trend could be around 40,000 by 31st May 

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 110,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• Singapore and Belgium swapped places — Singapore climbed to the third (3rd) position worldwide for number of cases per 1M population

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• Switzerland and Austria swapped places; Malaysia and Ireland swapped places too

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• No changes

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Very large number of recoveries reported by Dominican Republic (could be just reporting timing)
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Belgium and Israel swapped places; Singapore climbed up to the tenth (10th) place and displaced Norway (Norway is now in the 13th place)
• USA has passed 11 million tests, but that has only put USA in the 19th position (Russia with less than half the population of the USA, has performed almost 7 million tests already)

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• UAE, Singapore and Canada perform large numbers of testing overnight
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Kazakhstan increased caseload but has not reported any new deaths; climbed up to the 4th spot (used to be in the 6th spot) and displaced Belarus and Saudi Arabia down.

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• China reported 6 new cases
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Nigeria reported more than 8.5% caseload increase overnight; followed by South Africa with almost 7.5%
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries (again) — Singapore continues to perform large number of test daily to identify the source of their 2nd wave outbreak and control it (no new deaths reported, only recoveries)

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

• Mexico is the new addition to this group, with large case volume increases for 7 days; all other countries were in this report yesterday

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

• No changes except for position changes to this list

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
• Sweden Influenza Data: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/?pub=63511