COVID-19 Graphs 19MAY2020

Notes:

  1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
  2. Netherlands and UK do not provide details of their recovered and active cases, therefore they are not included in any reports that are considering these

 

Interesting Facts

  • South America is becoming the next hot region for COVID-19

Peru and Chile have large caseloads, and they are on an upwards trend. At the present trend, Peru and Chile might catch up with Spain on number of cases per 1M by 31st May.

Ecuador had issues not reporting cases which was corrected a few weeks back, and it seems to be in a more stable curve now. Brazil closely followed by Bolivia are next with growing caseloads.

Then there is a group of countries who have been able to maintain their caseloads under control due to very tough lock-down measures: Argentina, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The numbers reported by Venezuela are extremely good, but not totally reliable due to the lack of transparency of their government.

When considering the death rates, Ecuador has the highest death rate in South America by far.  However, even at its present trend, Ecuador could reach only half the UK’s death volume per 1M people by 31st May (or a third of Belgium’s deaths per 1M).  Still, South American countries are not experiencing the death toll the European countries do.

Peru and Brazil follow Ecuador (about 1/2 of Ecuador’s death rate); followed by Chile and Bolivia.

Argentina, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay also have very low death rates compared with their neighbors there. Once again, Venezuela shows extremely low number of deaths which is also questionable due to lack of transparency.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Singapore has taken the lead on case number per 1M people in the world
  • Belarus, USA and Sweden caseload continues to increase (curve not flattening)

  • All other curves seem to be flattening with the exception of Sweden and USA

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

  • Peru . Chile, Oman and Saudi Arabia lead this group, followed by Brazil — no changes from  yesterday

  • Peru and Brazil continue to lead this group; Brazil could pass Peru in just a few days
  • Mexico made this report today, and it is third (3rd); with Chile far behind on the 4th  – Peru and Brazil have about four times (4x) the death rate of Chile; and twice that of Mexico
  • Brazil’s government continues to ignore the crisis as a hoax, their Health Minister resigned yesterday in protest

Brightspots Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the places that have been able to “best” handle the COVID-19 crisis. To qualify as “best” is very subjective, so I must define what I have used to select these as “best”:

1) low number of cases per 1M population (less than 500);
2) low number of active cases (or high number of recoveries);
3) low number of deaths per case volume (3% or less);
4) enough testing performed (more than 2,500 per 1M pop);
5) more than 7 wk from day “1” (day passed 100 cases in total)

  • Palestine joined this group and took Malaysia’s spot
  • Uzbekistan and Australia’s caseloads are increasing lightly still, all other countries see to have flatten the curve (no caseload increases overnight)

  • Palestine took Malaysia’s spot today; all other countries have flatten the curve

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

  • World – at current trend the world could pass 6 million cases by 31st May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,100 cases by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend could reach around 14,000 cases by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend UK could be under 300,000 cases by 31st May 

  • USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 370,000 by 31st May 

  • Australia – at current trend, could be under 105 by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend could be under 40,000 by 31st May

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 105,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Afghanistan increased its caseload overnight and dropped off from this report, Argentina took the 10th spot today

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Finland increase its caseload but not its recoveries and dropped off from this report, allowing Israel to take the 10th spot

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Portugal increased its recoveries overnight and dropped off to the 7th spot
  • Colombia increased its caseload but not its recoveries and climbed up to make this report in the 9th position (Russia dropped off from this report to the 11th spot)

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Large number of recoveries reported by Portugal and Dominican Republic (second day of high recoveries for Dominican Republic, more than 50% of caseload recovered already)
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • No changes

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Egypt swapped place with Mexico

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Portugal reported a large number of testes performed last night
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Saudi Arabia and Belarus swapped places; UAE and Russia swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • UK caseload increased but its death numbers, this could be due to heavy testing being performed in the UK — UK dropped to the 4th position, and Italy took the 3rd that UK left behind

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • China reported 7 new cases
  • Spain and Italy reported low numbers of new cases, even though they are performing large testing efforts in both countries — this is great news that they might have stabilised their COVID-19 crisis
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Colombia reported a large number of new cases (more than 8%)
  • Bangladesh continues to grow at a high pace
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Japan and Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

  • No new additions to this group; all other countries were in this report yesterday (only position changes)

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

  • No changes except for position changes to this list

 

Data Source Links

 

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