COVID-19 Graphs 21MAY2020

Notes:

  1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
  2. Netherlands and UK do not provide details of their recovered and active cases, therefore they are not included in any reports that are considering these
  3. UK reported an error on their total cases reported yesterday, and reduced their number of cases today (negative case increase). To avoid this data error, I manually reduced yesterday’s total cases in the UK to correct the error, and therefore showing a very small case increase today (but keeping case increases positive values).

 

Interesting Facts

  • The total COVID-19 cases worldwide did pass 5 million cases today; but another important milestone is that recoveries have passed 2 million worldwide too (and that is not counting recoveries from UK or Netherlands who decided not to report them to WHO).
  • Brazil has passed Spain on number of cases tomorrow, and it is now the 3rd country in the world in total number of cases — At its present trend, Brazil could pass Russia in just a couple of days, and take the 2nd position

Many of those affected in Brazil are Indigenous Brazilians. In protest, many Brazilians are wearing masks displaying “Vidas Indígenas Importam”, which translates to “Indigenous Lives are Important”

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Singapore maintains the lead on case number per 1M people in the world; and continues to grow
  • USA continues on a trend to pass Ireland, Spain and Belgium before 31st May
  • Sweden dropped off from the top 10 countries by caseload to 1M people; Peru took Sweden’s 10th spot today

  • All other curves seem to be flattening with the exception of USA and Peru

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

  • Peru has not reported large case increases and dropped off from the Hotspot group; Mexico took its place
  • Chile, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Brazil continue lead

  • Mexico took Peru’s place in this group
  • Brazil has more than twice (2x) the number of deaths per 1M than Mexico (2nd)

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

  • World – at current trend the world could pass 6 million cases by 31st May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,100 cases by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend could be under 14,000 cases by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend UK could be under 300,000 cases by 31st May

  • USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 370,000 by 31st May 

  • Australia – at current trend, could be under 105 by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend could be under 40,000 by 31st May 

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 105,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Argentina reported a few new cases and it is now in the 11th place, Morocco took their previous spot in the 10th position

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Peru reported a few new cases and took the 10th position, displacing Sweden to the 11th position

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Austria and Switzerland swapped places
  • Ireland reported a large number of recoveries and climbed up to the 7th spot, displacing Denmark, Malaysia and Israel down 1 position each

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Indonesia and Colombia swapped places

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Ireland reported a large number of recoveries (more than 6% of their caseload)
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Portugal and Spain swapped places; Israel and Ireland swapped places
  • Singapore displaced Australia and took the 10th spot

  • Algeria reported a large number of tests performed overnight, and dropped off from this ranking
  • All countries climbed up one position, and Philippines took the 10th spot

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Singapore performed a large number of tests overnight (now 10th country in the world for number of tests per 1M people)
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • It is great to see UK reporting low numbers of new cases per caseload, first time in some time
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Chile reported caseload increase of more than 7% again — not a good sign
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries again (caseload keeps increasing for Singapore, but no new deaths reported and many recoveries)

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

  • Mexico was added to this group after reporting large caseload increases for a week; Peru dropped off from this group (in 11th place now)
  • All other countries were in this report yesterday (only position changes in those)

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

  • No changes, except for position changes, to this list

 

Data Source Links

 

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