Notes:

1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
   
2. Netherlands and UK do not provide details of their recovered and active cases, therefore they are not included in any reports that are considering these

 

Interesting Facts

• What happened to Argentina?  With the ability to perform a larger number of tests now, Argentina is able to identify cases and attempt to isolate the spread. On 20th May, 474 cases were reported, and just overnight another 1,122 cases were reported to the WHO.  Argentina has had a very high mortality rate for the number of cases reported, which combined with their lack of testing, seemed to indicate there could be a larger caseload (around 12,000). The increases of caseload might be confirming that.
  

The new cases are localised in three main areas only:

• The Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (the Federal Capital of the country) is reporting about two thirds (2/3) of the total new cases, with the main sources being shanty towns and Aged Care facilities — The city has been in full lock-down since 20th March, but shanty towns have not observed that and the virus has spread there.  The city is very densely populated, with almost 3 million in an area no bigger than a quarter (1/4) of the area of the City of Canberra (population 400,000 only).

• The Province of Buenos Aires (most populated state in the country), is reporting about half of the new cases as the City of Buenos Aires (1/6 of the total), with similar main sources — Similarly, the whole province has been in lock-down with the exception of a few shanty towns which border the City of Buenos Aires (many areas in the province far from the City of Buenos Aires have not reported case increases). The most densely populated area in the whole province are the suburbs surrounding the City of Buenos Aires (known as the Greater Buenos Aires), the population there is almost 13 million people, in an area that it is just twice the size of the whole ACT (population about half a million). Outside of the Greater Buenos Aires, the province population is only about 3 million, distributed in an area almost half the size of NSW (population 7.5 million; the rest of the province of Buenos Aires is as densely populated as regional NSW)
• The Rest of the Country shows very small caseload increases (share the other 1/6 of the total new cases) — Many states are considering slowly re-opening their economies as they have been able to contain the spread of the virus. The population of the rest of the country is about 25 million, distributed in an area that’s about one third (1/3) of the continent of Australia (3x more densely populated than Australia)

The death rate in Argentina is not growing at same pace as the number of cases, which might also confirm testing is allowing the confirm cases that have been in the community and hopefully isolate them and control the spread to avoid future deaths.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Singapore continues to top this group, USA continues to increase caseload and could pass Belgium and Spain before 31st May
• Belarus is in a dangerous upwards trend, if their curve does not flatten soon they could take over all countries in this group by early June

• All other curves seem to be flattening with the exception of USA and Peru (still)
• USA could pass Ireland deaths per 1M in a few days

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

• Bolivia has joined this group after passing the 4,500 number of cases
• Chile, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Brazil continue to lead this group (Bolivia very near Brazil’s curve)

• Bolivia is 2nd in this group, about half the death rate of Brazil so far
• Brazil continues to increase their death rate, they are now three (3x) higher than Chile

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

• World – at current trend the world could pass 6 million cases by 31st May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,100 cases by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend could be under 15,000 cases by 31st May 

• UK – at current trend UK could be under 300,000 cases by 31st May

• USA – at current trend could be under 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 370,000 by 31st May 

• Australia – at current trend, could be under 105 by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

• UK – at current trend could be under 40,000 by 31st May 

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 105,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• USA passed Belgium; and at its present trend USA will pass Ireland in a few days

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• South Korea and Switzerland swapped places (South Korea is increasing their recoveries); Israel and Malaysia swapped places too

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Bolivia passed the 4,500 cases and is today included in all reports
• Bolivia made it into this ranking at the 4th position, displacing all countries in this ranking down one position (Colombia dropped off from this report, it’s in the 11th position now)

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Brazil reported a large number of recoveries overnight
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Russia and Italy swapped places

• Bolivia also made it into this report today, with a low number of tests, in the 4th spot displacing all countries in this report down one position

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Denmark, UK, Russia and Belarus continue to perform a large number of tests daily
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Kazakhstan and Oman swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Canada reported a large number of deaths overnight and climbed up to the 10th spot in this report (displacing Algeria to the 11th spot)

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Very large new cases reported by Argentina and Brazil (more than 11%); followed by Bolivia and Colombia
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Japan and Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

• Bolivia passed the 4,500 cases and was included in today’s reports, and it displaced Mexico in the Hotspot group
• All other countries were in this report yesterday (only position changes in those)

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

• Cambodia made it to the Brightspots report displacing South Korea to the 11th spot – Cambodia reported 123 cases, has only 1 active case with 122 already recovered and no deaths (however, number of tests is low for their population)

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide