COVID-19 Graphs 23MAY2020

Notes:

  1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
  2. Netherlands and UK do not provide details of their recovered and active cases, therefore they are not included in any reports that are considering these

 

Interesting Facts

  • Norway reported their total number of recoveries overnight. They had reported only 32 recoveries until now, and showed as the country with the lowest number of recoveries in the world. However, their recovery rate is more than 92% of their total caseload, which puts them in the 2nd country with the highest rate of recovery in the world. Its neighbor Sweden, with twice the population of Norway, paints a completely different picture due to their different method to handle the Pandemic :

  • Argentina has had large new cases reported everyday for about a week and it is not considered in the COVID-19 Hotspots around the world. However, the death rate in Argentina is still far lower than its neighbors in South America. Argentina has about a quarter (1/4) of Brazil’s population but about twice (2x) the population of Chile, but their approach to handling the crisis has been totally different and here are the results:

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

  • Singapore continues to top this group
  • USA continues to increase caseload and could pass Belgium, Spain and Ireland before 31st May
  • Belarus continues a steep upwards trend

  • All other curves seem to be flattening with the exception of USA and Peru (still)
  • USA could pass Ireland deaths per 1M in a few days

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

  • Chile, Oman, Brazil and Bolivia lead this group — Chile has twice (2x) the caseload per 1M people of Brazil
  • Argentina made the Hotspot list today due to large caseload increases everyday for about a week

  • Brazil continues to increase their death rate, they are now four (4x) higher than Chile (2nd in the group)
  • Argentina made the Hotspot report today, and its deaths per 1M are 4th in this group; but when compared with its neighbors Argentina is about 10x lower than Brazil, and 3x lower than Chile

Highest Deaths per 1M Around the World (+China as reference)

These are the countries with the highest death rates to the COVID-19 disease:

  • Most curves seem to be flattening the cases per 1M curve, with the exception of Sweden, Canada and Mexico
  • If continue at the current trend, Sweden could have more cases per 1M people than Italy and UK in a couple of weeks
  • Canada shows signs of the start of flattening the curve

  • Most countries have flattened the deaths per 1M curve too, with the exception of Sweden, Ecuador, Canada and Mexico
  • If maintaining the present trend, Sweden could have more deaths per 1M people than France in just a few days, and could have more deaths per 1M people than Italy in little over a week

 

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

  • World – at current trend the world could pass 6 million cases by 31st May

  • Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,100 cases by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend could be under 16,000 cases by 31st May

  • UK – at current trend UK could be under 300,000 cases by 31st May

  • USA – at current trend could reach 1,800,000 cases by 31st May 

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

  • World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 370,000 by 31st May 

  • Australia – at current trend, could be under 105 by 31st May 

  • Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

  • UK – at current trend could be under 40,000 by 31st May 

  • USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 105,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Algeria swapped places with Bangladesh

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

  • USA passed Ireland too, it has the 3rd largest caseload per 1M people
  • Belarus swapped places with Switzerland

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Norway reported their recoveries to the WHO (it had been reported 32 recoveries every day until now) — it took the 2nd position in this ranking with almost 93% of their total caseload recovered already
  • Norway insertion in the ranking pushed all countries down one position
  • Denmark and Ireland swapped places too

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

  • Norway used to be at the top of this ranking with only 32 recoveries, but now that they have reported their recoveries it has dropped off from this ranking (it has taken the 2nd spot on the highest recoveries ranking above)
  • All countries moved up one position due to the removal of Norway

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

  • Norway reported their recoveries overnight
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

  • Belgium and Spain swapped places; Ireland and Israel swapped places too

  • Egypt and Bangladesh swapped places

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

  • UK, Russia, Denmark and Belarus continue to perform a large number of tests daily (top 4 for many days already)
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

  • Ghana and Oman swapped places

Highest Deaths per Case volume

  • No changes

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Norway also reported very low new cases overnight (only 23) — Its next door neighbor Sweden reported 637 new cases overnight
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

  • Nigeria reported the largest caseload growth overnight, and made this report today
  • Very large new cases reported again by Chile, Argentina and Brazil (more than 6% each); followed by Oman who made this report first time
  • Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)
  • Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

  • Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

  • Argentina has had large caseload increases everyday for about a week, and it has made the Hotspot report today
  • All other countries were in this report yesterday (only position changes in those)

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

 

  • No changes to the countries in this group; only position changes

 

Data Source Links

 

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