Notes:

1. Using the WorldMeter website to update daily numbers and make projections for all countries
   
2. Netherlands and UK do not provide details of their recovered and active cases, therefore they are not included in any reports that are considering these

 

Interesting Facts

• USA COVID-19 Death Toll: Sadly, at the current trend USA will pass 100,000 deaths sometime today

• New York Times dated 22nd May 2020: “A vaccine developed in China appears to be safe and may protect people from the new coronavirus, researchers reported on Friday. The early-stage trial, published in the Lancet, was conducted by researchers at several laboratories and included 108 participants aged 18 to 60. Those who received a single dose of the vaccine produced certain immune cells, called T cells, within two weeks. Antibodies needed for immunity peaked at 28 days after the inoculation. “This is promising data, but it’s early data,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, director of vaccine research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, who was not involved in the work. “Over all, I would say this is good news.” (more details: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/health/coronavirus-vaccine-china.html)

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Ireland and Singapore continues to top this group with the highest numbrer of cases per 1M people
• USA and Belarus continues a steep upwards trend

• All deaths per 1M curves seem to be flattening; with the exception of USA and Peru
• USA could pass Ireland deaths per 1M in a few days; Peru’s curve has turned upwards

Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

The logic to determine Hotspots was changed to take to account the last 7 days of reporting, the top-10 countries with the highest trend of case increases are included in this group.

• Chile, Oman, Brazil and Bolivia lead this group — Chile has more than twice (2x) the caseload per 1M people of Brazil

• Brazil continues to increase their death rate, they are still about three (3x) higher than Chile (2nd in the group)

 

COVID-19 Cases

Legend: Decrease  ; Increase  ; No Change 

 

• World – at current trend the world could pass 6 million cases by 31st May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,100 cases by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend could reach 16,000 cases by 31st May

• UK – at current trend UK could be around 275,000 cases by 31st May

• USA – at current trend could reach 1,800,000 cases by 31st May

 

COVID-19 Deaths

Legend: Decrease ; Increase ; No Change

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths from COVID-19 could be under 370,000 by 31st May 

• Australia – at current trend, could be under 105 by 31st May 

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could pass 500 by 31st May 

• UK – at current trend could be under 40,000 by 31st May 

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be below 105,000 by 31st May 

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• South Korea and Austria swapped places

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Bolivia and Afghanistan swapped places
• USA reported large number of recoveries and dropped off to the 46th position (or the 12th lowest recoveries); Indonesia, Portugal and Oman climbed up one spot due to that (USA used to be in the 8th spot)

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• Argentina, Morocco and Japan reported large numbers of recoveries
• USA did too, and that’s why it dropped off the previous ranking
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Lowest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Denmark, UK, Russia and Belarus continue to perform a large number of tests daily (top 4 for many days already)
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Bangladesh reported an increase of cases but not an increase of deaths and climbed up to the 10th spot of this ranking, displacing Australia to the 11th place (and off this ranking)

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• Italy and UK swapped places (the rate of deaths per 1M for these countries is almost identical)

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Germany and Spain reported low numbers of new caseloads overnight
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• Afghanistan, Bolivia, Oman and Argentina had large caseload increases (more than 6%) again — they’ve been at the top of this ranking for a few days
• Countries in YELLOW are new to this ranking (all other countries were there yesterday)
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• Singapore reported a significant increase of recoveries

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 7 days)

These reports were changed from today to consider countries with large caseload increases in the last 7 days as Hotspots (used to only consider 3 days)

• No new countries added to this group; all other countries were in this report yesterday (only position changes in those)

Brightspots (countries best handling the COVID-19 crisis as per criteria described above)

• No changes to the countries in this group; only position changes

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide