COVID-19 Graphs 30MAR2020

WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Cases

* I have changed the trend predictor from exponential to polynomial which provides a more conservative outlook

  • Australia – the increase of cases has slowed down a bit, and that has flatten the curve. We should have around 10,000 cases now by 7th April. The mortality rate is very low in Australia, however in the current trend we could see around 100 deaths by mid April
  • Argentina – at the current trend of new cases, there could be more than 2000 people infected in a week, around day “17”. Australia had already 3000 cases by day “17”, either the full lock-down in Argentina is slowing the spread or there is not enough testing conducted there. The mortality rate trend is higher than Australia, and if the trend persists, there could be around 300 deaths by mid April
  • USA – still showing a steep increase of cases daily, at the current trend it will have around 1,000,000 in about a week. Mortality rate is increasing in the USA, and at the current trend the number of death in the USA could exceed of 6000 deaths in little over a week.

 

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