NSW Cases by Location Analysis as of 3rd September 2021

NSW COVID-19 Total Locally Overseas Deaths
Total (from 25-Jan-20) 24589 21077 3512 175
NSW Total Cases Outbreak from 16-Jun-21 19158 18983 175 119
NSW cases continue to climb, mostly locally transmitted
Reports updated to show data from 16th August to the present
NSW Totals of Locally Acquired Cases ONLY
Total number of cases reported yesterday was 1432 but only 1067 of those were included in the NSW Health data file.
NSW Cases by Day
A total of 4800 new cases in the last 4 days.
From the 4800, only 6 cases overseas acquired with 4794 locally acquired (100%) - 3965 from unknown sources (investigated)
3965 Number of cases with unknown sources is too high now
NSW Cases by Area
A total of 20 LGAs got new cases after 16th August (no cases in this outbreak before 16th August)
They are: Blayney (A), Bogan (A), Bourke (A), Brewarrina (A), Broken Hill (C), Central Darling (A), Cessnock (C), Cobar (A), Coonamble (A), Forbes (A), Gilgandra (A), Kempsey (A), Kiama (A), Mosman (A), Narromine (A), Orange (C), Parkes (A), Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional (A), Shoalhaven (C), Upper Hunter Shire (A) . 
1 LGAs with new cases in the last 3 days: Upper Hunter Shire (A)
Cases reported last 4 days from: Canterbury-Bankstown  988, Cumberland  901, Blacktown  538, Liverpool  373, Fairfield  302, Penrith  238, Campbelltown  173, Parramatta  162, Sydney  100, Dubbo Regional  99, Georges River  91, Overseas 81, Bayside  77, Inner West  75, Camden  72, Sutherland Shire  43, Randwick  43, Strathfield  41, The Hills Shire  40, Wollongong  32, Canada Bay  29, Ryde  28, Northern Beaches  25, Bourke  23, Hawkesbury  20, Central Coast  19, Waverley  18, Blue Mountains  17, Central Darling  14, Hornsby  13, Shellharbour  12, Wollondilly  12, Lane Cove  10, Bathurst Regional  9, Burwood  9, Lake Macquarie  8, Port Stephens  7, Willoughby  6, Newcastle  6, Woollahra  5, Orange  5, Hunters Hill  3, North Sydney  3, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional  3, Narromine  3, Wingecarribee  3, Shoalhaven  2, Brewarrina  2, Walgett  2, Ku-ring-gai  2, Blayney  2, Broken Hill  2, Armidale Regional  1, Parkes  1, Lithgow  1, Mosman  1, Gilgandra  1, Upper Hunter Shire  1, Forbes  1, Mid-Western Regional  1, Maitland  1.
"(blank)" in the area is used to identify "Overseas" cases, and/or local cases with "Unknown" LGA
NSW Trends of the TOP-10 "Hotspot" LGAs (the areas to avoid!)
Cumberland and Canterbury-Bankstown are increasing caseload at the same rate (more than 50% than Blacktown)
TOP-10 NSW LGAs with highest new cases proportional to their population for last 4 days
Cumberland again has the highest volume of new cases proportional to their population; also the highest number of cases
SHOALHAVEN Cases 
2 locally transmitted cases were reported in the Shoalhaven LGA on 2nd Sep - both in the 2541 post code
During the last 4 days, new cases were reported in: Wollongong, Shellharbour, Wingecarribee.
PROJECTIONS of Cases using current Trend to 15th Nov (target Herd Immunity from Vaccination)
If the trend of new cases continue, we could end up around 12 times the number of current cases by
31st October - About 2 weeks before we achieve Herd Immunity from Vaccination in NSW (80%)
12 times the ICU beds is a lot more than the ICU bed capacity in NSW -- that could cause 
12 times the number of deaths as well
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Daily Case Volumes
First chart shows the case number comparison of daily new cases in Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural
NSW - The second chart shows the same daily case numbers but expressed as a percentage of the population
of the LGAs in that region
Reg/Rural NSW has a large increase of cases proportional to their LGAs population on 2nd Sep; 
this could change when the data includes all cases for 2nd Sep
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Accum Case Volume
First chart shows the accummulated total number of cases comparing Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW.
The second chart shows the same accummulated totals but as a percentage of the population of the LGAs in that region
Reg/Rural NSW has a higher number of cases proportional to their population than Greater Sydney from 16th Aug
however Greater Sydney is on arithmetic growth pattern (line) while Reg/Rural NSW could be flattening the curve
Vaccination Progress in NSW - Target Weeks to achieve 70% & 80% based on trend
Great progress made in NSW last week - if we are able to keep these high vaccination numbers for the weeks
ahead then we will achieve 70% and 80% full vaccination targets a lot sooner !!