NSW Cases by Location Analysis as of 9th September 2021

NSW COVID-19 Total Locally Overseas Deaths
Total (from 25-Jan-20) 24553 21041 3512 209
NSW Total Cases Outbreak from 16-Jun-21 19122 18947 175 153
NSW cases continue to climb, mostly locally transmitted
Reports updated to show data from 16th August to the present
NSW Totals of Locally Acquired Cases ONLY
Total number of cases reported yesterday was 1407 but only 1275 of those were included in the NSW Health data file.
NSW Cases by Day
A total of 5288 new cases in the last 4 days.
From the 5288, only 5 cases overseas acquired with 5283 locally acquired (100%) - 4689 from unknown sources (investigated)
4689 Number of cases with unknown sources is too high now
NSW Cases by Area
A total of 24 LGAs got new cases after 16th August (no cases in this outbreak before 16th August)
They are: Balranald (A), Blayney (A), Bogan (A), Bourke (A), Brewarrina (A), Broken Hill (C), Central Darling (A), Coonamble (A), Dungog (A), Eurobodalla (A), Forbes (A), Gilgandra (A), Kempsey (A), Kiama (A), Mosman (A), Narrandera (A), Narromine (A), Orange (C), Parkes (A), Port Macquarie-Hastings (A), Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional (A), Shoalhaven (C), Upper Hunter Shire (A), Wentworth (A) . 
2 LGAs with new cases in the last 3 days: Dungog (A), Narrandera (A)
Cases reported last 4 days from: Canterbury-Bankstown  1103, Cumberland  794, Blacktown  528, Liverpool  475, Fairfield  286, Sydney  223, Penrith  216, Parramatta  183, Campbelltown  147, Bayside  105, Georges River  97, Randwick  95, Camden  79, Strathfield  79, Dubbo Regional  77, Central Coast  70, Overseas 70, Inner West  70, Sutherland Shire  53, Wollongong  52, The Hills Shire  52, Correctional settings 46, Hawkesbury  44, Ryde  34, Canada Bay  32, Shellharbour  23, Northern Beaches  20, Burwood  17, Waverley  17, Hornsby  17, Bourke  16, Broken Hill  12, Central Darling  11, Ku-ring-gai  11, Woollahra  11, Blue Mountains  11, Wollondilly  10, Lake Macquarie  10, Port Stephens  9, Shoalhaven  9, Wingecarribee  8, North Sydney  7, Hunters Hill  7, Narromine  6, Walgett  6, Newcastle  5, Maitland  5, Bathurst Regional  5, Orange  4, Willoughby  3, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional  3, Eurobodalla  3, Lane Cove  2, Goulburn Mulwaree  2, Mosman  2, Brewarrina  1, Mid-Coast  1, Dungog  1, Snowy Monaro Regional  1, Inverell  1, Narrandera  1.
"(blank)" in the area is used to identify "Overseas" cases, and/or local cases with "Unknown" LGA
NSW Trends of the TOP-10 "Hotspot" LGAs (the areas to avoid!)
Canterbury-Bankstown and Cumberland are increasing caseload at the same rate (more than 50% than Blacktown)
TOP-10 NSW LGAs with highest new cases proportional to their population for last 4 days
Cumberland again has the highest volume of new cases proportional to their population; also the highest number of cases
Starthfield is 4th on the volume of new cases last 4 days proportional to their population
SHOALHAVEN Cases 
13 locally transmitted cases were reported in the Shoalhaven LGA on 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th Sep 
1 more locally transmitted cases were reported in the Shoalhaven LGA on 8th Sep (16 active, most on post code 2541)
During the last 4 days, new cases were reported in: Wollongong, Shellharbour, Wingecarribee.
PROJECTIONS of Cases using current Trend to 15th Nov (target Herd Immunity from Vaccination)
If the trend of new cases continue, we could end up around 9 times the number of current cases by
31st October - About 2 weeks before we achieve Herd Immunity from Vaccination in NSW (80%)
9 times the ICU beds is a lot more than the ICU bed capacity in NSW -- that could cause 
9 times the number of deaths as well
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Daily Case Volumes
First chart shows the case number comparison of daily new cases in Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural
NSW - The second chart shows the same daily case numbers but expressed as a percentage of the population
of the LGAs in that region
Reg/Rural NSW has a large increase of cases proportional to their LGAs population  
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Accum Case Volume
First chart shows the accummulated total number of cases comparing Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW.
The second chart shows the same accummulated totals but as a percentage of the population of the LGAs in that region
Reg/Rural NSW has a higher number of cases proportional to their population than Greater Sydney from 16th Aug
however Greater Sydney is on arithmetic growth pattern (line) while Reg/Rural NSW could be flattening the curve
Vaccination Progress in NSW - Target Weeks to achieve 70% & 80% based on trend
Great progress made in NSW last week - if we are able to keep these high vaccination numbers for the weeks
ahead then we will achieve 70% and 80% full vaccination targets a lot sooner !!