NSW Cases by Location Analysis as of 22nd September 2021

NSW COVID-19 Total Locally Overseas Deaths
Total (from 25-Jan-20) 24537 21025 3512 316
Outbreak from 16-Jun-21 19106 18931 175 260
NSW Total Cases
NSW cases continue to climb, mostly locally transmitted
Reports updated to show data from 1st September to the present
NSW Totals of Locally Acquired Cases ONLY
Total number of cases reported yesterday was 1035 but only 926 of those were included in the NSW Health data file.
New case daily growth trend is no longer exponential, which could be a great sign for NSW
NSW Cases by Day
A total of 4014 new cases in the last 4 days.
From the 4014, only 3 cases overseas acquired with 4011 locally acquired (100%) - 3188 from unknown sources (investigated)
3188 Number of cases with unknown sources is too high now
NSW Cases by LGA
A total of 18 LGAs got new cases after 1st September (no cases in this outbreak before 1st September)
They are: Albury (C), Balranald (A), Bega Valley (A), Cowra (A), Eurobodalla (A), Hilltops (A), Lismore (C), Murray River (A), Muswellbrook (A), Nambucca (A), Port Macquarie-Hastings (A), Singleton (A), Tamworth Regional (A), Upper Hunter Shire (A), Upper Lachlan Shire (A), Walcha (A), Wentworth (A), Yass Valley (A) . 
4 LGAs with new cases in the last 3 days: Murray River (A), Muswellbrook (A), Upper Lachlan Shire (A), Walcha (A)
LGA's without cases in the last 14 days
Armidale Regional, Ballina, Bellingen, Berrigan, Bland, Bogan, Brewarrina, Byron, Carrathool, Clarence Valley, Cobar, Coolamon, Coonamble, Cootamundra-Gundagai Regional, Dungog, Edward River, Federation, Greater Hume, Griffith, Gwydir, Hay, The Hills, Inverell, Junee, Kyogle, Lachlan, Leeton, Liverpool Plains, Lockhart, Lord Howe Island, Moree Plains, Murrumbidgee, Narrandera, Narrabri, Oberon, Richmond Valley, Snowy Valleys, Sutherland, Temora, Tenterfield, Tweed, Unincorporated Far West, Upper Hunter, Upper Lachlan, Uralla, Wagga Wagga, Warrumbungle, Weddin (total 48 of the total 129 LGAs, with a population of 1,008,280, or 12.35% of the total NSW population)
LGA case details from 16th August 2021
48 LGAs reported cases last 4 days, and they are: Canterbury-Bankstown  603, Blacktown  406, Cumberland  403, Liverpool  363, Fairfield  205, Sydney  193, Campbelltown  163, Penrith  144, Randwick  126, Wollongong  124, Bayside  114, Central Coast  98, Parramatta  82, Georges River  82, Camden  80, Sutherland Shire  66, Shellharbour  57, Northern Beaches  56, The Hills Shire  46, Inner West  46, Newcastle  46, Hawkesbury  42, Overseas 41, Lake Macquarie  36, Ryde  35, Strathfield  29, Dubbo Regional  28, Correctional settings 28, Shoalhaven  25, Hornsby  24, Canada Bay  22, Waverley  18, Burwood  15, Wollondilly  14, Woollahra  14, Broken Hill  12, Yass Valley  10, Maitland  10, Blue Mountains  9, Kiama  8, Central Darling  8, Hilltops  8, Lane Cove  8, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional  7, Ku-ring-gai  7, Hunters Hill  7, Goulburn Mulwaree  7, Wingecarribee  5, Willoughby  4, Walgett  3, Mosman  3, Port Stephens  3, Cessnock  2, Eurobodalla  2, Cowra  2, Coffs Harbour  2, Kempsey  2, Muswellbrook  1, Murray River  1, Nambucca  1, Walcha  1, Glen Innes Severn  1, Lithgow  1, Upper Lachlan Shire  1, North Sydney  1, Tamworth Regional  1, Albury  1, Mid-Western Regional  1.
"(blank)" in the area is used to identify "Overseas" cases, and/or local cases with "Unknown" LGA
NSW Trends of the TOP-10 "Hotspot" LGAs (the areas to avoid!)
Canterbury-Bankstown is increasing caseload at a fast rate, while Cumberland's curve seems to be flattening
TOP-10 NSW LGAs with highest new cases proportional to their population for last 4 days
Cumberland has the highest volume of new cases last 4 days proportional to its population; however Sydney and Randwick
have a large number of new cases too
Shellharbour made it to this chart 1st time ever due high number of cases last 4 days (57) proportional to its pop (68,460)
SHOALHAVEN Cases 
The Shoalhaven LGA has now a total of 62 cases in this outbreak, most locally transmitted
During the last 4 days, new cases were reported in: Wollongong, Shellharbour, Wingecarribee, Kiama.
PROJECTIONS of Cases using current Trend to 15th Nov (target Herd Immunity from Vaccination)
Daily new cases has stabilised around 1,000 and at this trend, by the time the state might reach70% full
vaccination caseload might be little over 3x the current caseload which could be manageable by Health
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Daily Case Volumes
First chart shows the case number comparison of daily new cases in Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural
NSW - The second chart shows the same daily case numbers but expressed as a percentage of the population
of the LGAs in that region
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Accum Case Volume
First chart shows the accummulated total number of cases comparing Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW.
The second chart shows the same accummulated totals but as a percentage of the population of the LGAs in that
region
The curve of new cases is flattening for Reg/Rural NSW, and just growing slowly for Greater Sydney 
Vaccination Progress in NSW - Target Weeks to achieve 70% & 80% based on trend