NSW Cases by Location Analysis as of 26th September 2021

NSW COVID-19 Total Locally Overseas Deaths
Total (from 25-Jan-20) 24534 21022 3512 353
Outbreak from 16-Jun-21 19103 18928 175 297
NSW Total Cases
• NSW cases continue to climb, mostly locally transmitted
• Reports updated to show data from 1st September to the present
NSW Totals of Locally Acquired Cases ONLY
• Total number of cases reported yesterday was 964 but only 805 of those were included in the NSW Health data file.
• New case daily growth trend is no longer exponential, which could be a great sign for NSW
NSW Cases by Day
• A total of 3923 new cases in the last 4 days.
• From the 3923, only 4 cases overseas acquired with 3919 locally acquired (100%) - 2977 from unknown sources (investigated)
• 2977 Number of cases with unknown sources is too high now
NSW Cases by LGA
• A total of 21 LGAs got new cases after 1st September (no cases in this outbreak before 1st September)
• They are: Albury (C), Balranald (A), Bega Valley (A), Cowra (A), Eurobodalla (A), Hilltops (A), Lismore (C), Murray River (A), Muswellbrook (A), Nambucca (A), Port Macquarie-Hastings (A), Richmond Valley (A), Singleton (A), Snowy Valleys (A), Tamworth Regional (A), Upper Hunter Shire (A), Upper Lachlan Shire (A), Walcha (A), Warrumbungle Shire (A), Wentworth (A), Yass Valley (A) . 
• 2 LGAs with new cases in the last 3 days: Snowy Valleys (A), Warrumbungle Shire (A)
LGA's without cases in the last 14 days
• Armidale Regional, Ballina, Bellingen, Berrigan, Bland, Bogan, Brewarrina, Byron, Carrathool, Clarence Valley, Cobar, Coolamon, Coonamble, Cootamundra-Gundagai Regional, Dungog, Edward River, Federation, Greater Hume, Griffith, Gwydir, Hay, The Hills, Inverell, Junee, Kyogle, Lachlan, Leeton, Liverpool Plains, Lockhart, Lord Howe Island, Moree Plains, Murrumbidgee, Narrandera, Narrabri, Oberon, Sutherland, Temora, Tenterfield, Tweed, Unincorporated Far West, Upper Hunter, Upper Lachlan, Uralla, Wagga Wagga, Warrumbungle, Weddin (total 46 of the total 129 LGAs, with a population of 971,078, or 11.89% of the total NSW population)
LGA case details from 16th August 2021
• 46 LGAs reported cases last 4 days, and they are: Canterbury-Bankstown  453, Blacktown  372, Cumberland  325, Liverpool  314, Wollongong  218, Fairfield  218, Penrith  196, Sydney  177, Campbelltown  154, Central Coast  127, Bayside  113, Randwick  92, Parramatta  90, Georges River  74, Lake Macquarie  64, Camden  62, Northern Beaches  57, Sutherland Shire  55, Inner West  53, Shellharbour  48, The Hills Shire  47, Newcastle  40, Overseas 37, Hawkesbury  34, Dubbo Regional  33, Strathfield  31, Ryde  27, Wollondilly  26, Broken Hill  23, Hornsby  23, Shoalhaven  23, Bourke  22, Ku-ring-gai  22, Cowra  21, Canada Bay  20, Correctional settings 19, Blue Mountains  19, Cessnock  17, Burwood  17, Goulburn Mulwaree  15, Woollahra  14, Lane Cove  12, Hunters Hill  11, Waverley  11, Lithgow  11, Maitland  10, Wingecarribee  9, North Sydney  7, Hilltops  6, Willoughby  6, Kiama  6, Singleton  4, Central Darling  4, Port Stephens  3, Eurobodalla  3, Warrumbungle Shire  3, Coffs Harbour  3, Albury  3, Muswellbrook  3, Gilgandra  2, Kempsey  2, Mid-Coast  2, Mid-Western Regional  2, Mosman  1, Upper Hunter Shire  1, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional  1, Snowy Valleys  1, Warren  1, Tamworth Regional  1, Narromine  1, Richmond Valley  1.
• "(blank)" in the area is used to identify "Overseas" cases, and/or local cases with "Unknown" LGA
NSW Trends of the TOP-10 "Hotspot" LGAs (the areas to avoid!)
• Canterbury-Bankstown is increasing caseload at a fast rate, while Cumberland's curve seems to be flattening
TOP-10 NSW LGAs with highest new cases proportional to their population for last 4 days
• Liverpool, Cumberland & Canterbury-Bankstown have passed Cumberland, and have the highest volume of new cases last 4 days proportional to its population. Broken Hill made this report too, and Sydney has been in this report for about a week already
SHOALHAVEN Cases 
• The Shoalhaven LGA has now a total of 85 cases in this outbreak, most locally transmitted
• During the last 4 days, new cases were reported in: Wollongong, Shellharbour, Wingecarribee, Kiama.
PROJECTIONS of Cases using current Trend to 15th Nov (target Herd Immunity from Vaccination)
• Daily new cases has stabilised around 1,000 and at this trend, by the time NSW might reach 70% full
vaccination caseload could be little over 2.5x the current caseload which could be manageable by Health
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Daily Case Volumes
• First chart shows the case number comparison of daily new cases in Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural
NSW - The second chart shows the same daily case numbers but expressed as a percentage of the population
of the LGAs in that region
• Proportional to the LGAs population, most of the cases reported yesterday were in Reg/Rural NSW
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Accum Case Volume
• First chart shows the accummulated total number of cases comparing Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW.
The second chart shows the same accummulated totals but as a percentage of the population of the LGAs in that
region
• There is a small increase in the Reg/Rural NSW curve which is not a good sign
Vaccination Progress in NSW - Target Weeks to achieve 70% & 80% based on trend