NSW Cases by Location Analysis as of 18th October 2021

NSW COVID-19 Total Locally Overseas Deaths Date: 18-Oct-21
Total (from 25-Jan-20) 24500 20989 3511 531
Outbreak from 16-Jun-21 19069 18895 174 475
NSW Total Cases
• NSW cases continue to climb, mostly locally transmitted
• Reports updated to show data from 16th September to the present
NSW Totals of Locally Acquired Cases ONLY
• Total number of cases reported yesterday was 266 but only 211 of those were included in the NSW Health data file.
• New case daily growth trend is no longer exponential, which could be a great sign for NSW
NSW Cases by Day
• A total of 1262 new cases in the last 4 days.
• From the 1262, only 3 cases overseas acquired with 1259 locally acquired (100%) - 702 from unknown sources (investigated)
• 702 Number of cases with unknown sources is still high
• A total of 22 LGAs got new cases after 16th September (no cases in this outbreak before 16th September)
• They are: Bega Valley (A), Berrigan (A), Byron (A), Clarence Valley (A), Cobar (A), Cowra (A), Dungog (A), Edward River (A), Greater Hume Shire (A), Griffith (C), Hilltops (A), Kyogle (A), Liverpool Plains (A), Murray River (A), Muswellbrook (A), Nambucca (A), Oberon (A), Richmond Valley (A), Tamworth Regional (A), Tweed (A), Wagga Wagga (C), Walcha (A), Warrumbungle Shire (A) . 
• No new LGAs identified - It does not seem to be showing spread outside of the current affected LGAs
• LGA's without cases in the last 14 days: Armidale Regional, Balranald, Bellingen, Bland, Blayney, Bogan, Brewarrina, Cabonne, Carrathool, Coolamon, Coonamble, Cootamundra-Gundagai Regional, Dungog, Federation, Forbes, Gilgandra, Greater Hume, Griffith, Gwydir, Hay, The Hills, Hilltops, Inverell, Junee, Lachlan, Leeton, Lockhart, Lord Howe Island, Moree Plains, Murrumbidgee, Nambucca, Narrandera, Narrabri, Parkes, Snowy Valleys, Sutherland, Temora, Tenterfield, Tweed, Unincorporated Far West, Upper Hunter, Upper Lachlan, Uralla, Walcha, Warren, Warrumbungle, Weddin (total 47 of the total 129 LGAs, with a population of 850,078, or 10.41% of the total NSW population)
LGA case details from 16th August 2021
• 47 LGAs reported cases last 4 days, and they are: Canterbury-Bankstown  125, Liverpool  104, Cumberland  82, Blacktown  78, Newcastle  65, Fairfield  63, Lake Macquarie  52, Wollongong  48, Maitland  45, Campbelltown  45, Central Coast  44, Cessnock  38, Albury  38, Bayside  30, Mid-Coast  28, Inner West  26, Georges River  26, Shellharbour  25, Penrith  23, Shoalhaven  19, Sydney  18, Camden  17, Tamworth Regional  16, Randwick  15, Dubbo Regional  14, Port Stephens  14, Parramatta  12, Overseas 11, Wollondilly  9, Wentworth  8, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional  8, Walgett  8, Greater Hume Shire  7, Goulburn Mulwaree  6, Ryde  6, Kempsey  5, Hawkesbury  5, Wingecarribee  5, Sutherland Shire  5, Strathfield  4, Waverley  4, The Hills Shire  4, Northern Beaches  4, Correctional settings 4, Bathurst Regional  4, Oberon  4, Narromine  4, Bourke  3, Clarence Valley  3, Orange  3, Murray River  2, Yass Valley  2, Woollahra  2, Muswellbrook  2, Singleton  2, North Sydney  2, Edward River  2, Willoughby  1, Canada Bay  1, Lithgow  1, Eurobodalla  1, Lismore  1, Mid-Western Regional  1, Central Darling  1, Blue Mountains  1, Snowy Monaro Regional  1, Bega Valley  1, Ballina  1, Ku-ring-gai  1, Gunnedah  1, Kiama  1.
• "(blank)" in the area is used to identify "Overseas" cases, and/or local cases with "Unknown" LGA
NSW Trends of the TOP-10 "Hotspot" LGAs in the Greater Sydney region (the areas to avoid!)
• All LGAs seem to be starting to flatten their curves (reducing new case numbers)
• Wollongong LGA is 5th for its number of cases
NSW Trends of the TOP-10 "Hotspot" LGAs in Regional/Rural NSW (the areas to avoid!)
• Regional/Rural NSW LGAs are still increasing caseloads daily
• The Hunter region of NSW has the highest case growth and still climbing (see Cessnock); and many LGAs there have far less than 70% double vaccination (more like 50% double vaccination)
TOP-10 Greater Sydney LGAs with highest new cases proportional to population for last 4 days
• Cumberland is on the top spot in the top-10 of number of new cases last 4 days proportional to their populations
• Shellharbour is 3rd and Wollongong is 7th on the top-10 LGAs with highest caseload increases per population last 4 days
TOP-10 Regional/Rural NSW LGAs with highest new cases proportional to population for last 4 days
• Walget is now the top LGAs with the highest volume of new cases last 4 days proportional to their population (8 cases total for the last 4 days) - Almost half of their new cases are under investigation still
SHOALHAVEN Cases 
• The Shoalhaven LGA has now a total of 253 cases in this outbreak, most locally transmitted
• During the last 4 days, new cases were reported in: Wollongong, Shellharbour, Wingecarribee, Kiama.
Shoalhaven cases by Date, Post Code and Source of Infection 
PROJECTIONS of Cases using current Trend to 15th Nov (target Herd Immunity from Vaccination)
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Daily Case Volumes
• First chart shows the case number comparison of daily new cases in Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural
NSW - The second chart shows the same daily case numbers but expressed as a percentage of the population
of the LGAs in that region
• New cases in Regional/Rural NSW are higher than in Greater Sydney proportionally to population
Comparison of impact to Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW - Accum Case Volume
• First chart shows the accummulated total number of cases comparing Greater Sydney vs. Regional/Rural NSW.
The second chart shows the same accummulated totals but as a percentage of the population of the LGAs in that
region
• Cases in Regional/Rural NSW continue to increase proportional to the LGAs populations; now Regional/Rural NSW has caught up with Greater Sydney
Vaccination Progress in NSW - Target Weeks to achieve 70% & 80% based on trend
• NSW should pass the 70% full vaccination target of its WHOLE population this week (currently 65%)