Notes:

1. USA has not been reporting the full volume of cases and deaths to the WHO organisation as all other countries around the world do – Daily numbers for the USA have been loaded from the WorldMeter website, as they are consistent with the numbers reported by other US government websites.

 

Comparative Analysis from Day “1” (>100 cases) by Cases/Deaths relative to 1M Populations

Compare countries COVID-19 journey from their day “1” (when they exceeded the 100 case mark) using their case and death numbers relative to the countries 1 million population (1M).

Highest Caseloads per 1M Population (+China as reference)

• Spain and Belgium continue to have the highest caseload per 1M
• Sweden has passed Netherlands on caseload per 1M

• Belgium still has the highest deaths per 1M population, and its curve is flattening
• Sweden has passed Netherlands (3x as much as Germany)

New Hotspots Around the World (+China as reference)

• Peru, Chile and Russia continue to climb straight up; Russia will probably pass Chile tomorrow

• Peru and Brazil have more than twice the deaths per 1M than other countries

COVID-19 Cases

 

• World – at current trend the world could be just under 4,500,000 cases by 15th May

• Australia – at current trend, could be around 7,000 cases by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend could be just above 6,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)

• UK – at current trend UK could be around 240,000 cases by 15th May

• USA – at current trend could be around 1,500,000 cases by 15th May (small reduction)

 

COVID-19 Deaths

 

• World – at present trend, total number of deaths related to COVID-19 could be under 320,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

• Australia – at current trend, could still be around 100 by 15th May

• Argentina – at current trend, deaths could be just under 350 by 15th May (small reduction)

• UK – at current trend could just under 40,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

• USA – at the current trend, deaths could be just below 100,000 by 15th May (small reduction)

 

Best and Worst Performers as of Today

The symbol indicates a change in the ranking table from yesterday.

Lowest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Cases per 1 million (1M) Population

• No changes

Highest Recoveries per Case volume

• No changes

Lowest Recoveries per Case volume

• Russia and Bangladesh swapped places; USA and Ukraine swapped places; Indonesia and Sweden swapped places; Dominican Republic displaced Saudi Arabia on the 10th place

Number of New Recoveries per Cases volume

• There was no country that reported significant number of recoveries  overnight
• Bangladesh, Sweden, Japan, India and Romania are new to this ranking; all other countries were there previously
• It is the first time Sweden made this ranking, with a large number of recoveries reported overnight (almost 20% of their total number of recoveries)

Highest Tests volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Belgium and Spain swapped places; Russia and Germany swapped places

Lowest Test volume per 1 million (1M) Population

• Japan and Morocco swapped places

Number of New Tests overnight per 1 million (1M) Population

• Large numbers of tests were performed by Kazakhstan, Chile and Peru; other countries in this list have been performing many tests overnight for a few days

Lowest Deaths per Case volume

• Kazakhstan took the 2nd place with very low deaths reported, displacing other countries down

Highest Deaths per Case volume

• France and  UK swapped places

Lowest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• France and Spain reported low new cases overnight (the other countries have been reporting low new cases for a few days) — This is great news !!

Highest Number of New Cases overnight per Case volume

• No country reported more than 7% increase of caseload overnight
• Mexico and South Africa reported large new case increases overnight; all other countries have been reported many new cases overnight for a few days
• Daily increases of 14-15% mean case volume could double in around 4-5 days; daily increases of 9-10% mean case volumes could double in around 5-6 days – It is encouraging to see we don’t have any country with daily case increases of 25% of case volumes of higher, as that would mean that caseloads would double in 2-3 days

Highest Number of Days from Day “1” (>100 cases) – Yellow if >5% increase

• No changes

Hotspots (highest overnight case increase per 1M last 3 days)

• No new country added or removed from the Hotspots today

 

Data Source Links

 

• WHO Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
• Current Numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• Geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide